IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/deptwp/2022-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Over-optimism About Graduation and College Financial Aid

Author

Listed:
  • Emily G. Moschini
  • Gajendran Raveendranathan
  • Ming Xu

Abstract

In the United States, one in three students enrolled in a bachelor’s degree program eventually drops out, and the stock of student loans held by these dropouts is sizable. We establish empirically that college students and their parents are overly optimistic about the probability of college graduation when making college enrollment decisions. We incorporate such over-optimism into an overlapping generations model, which also includes family transfers, federal student loans, and a private student loan market. We discipline these model attributes using panel data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of Education, and then examine the impact of over-optimism and of expanding federal student loan limits in the presence of over-optimism. We find that over-optimism, despite reflecting mistaken beliefs, increases welfare for 18-year-olds as a result of equilibrium adjustments in income taxes, family transfers, and skill. Expanding federal student loan limits reduces welfare for low-skill 18-year-olds from poor families, a result driven by the presence of over-optimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Emily G. Moschini & Gajendran Raveendranathan & Ming Xu, 2022. "Over-optimism About Graduation and College Financial Aid," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022-09, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2022-09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://socialsciences.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/2022-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Rising indebtedness and temptation: A welfare analysis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 257-288, July.
    2. Lance J. Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2011. "The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2487-2529, October.
    3. Gene M. Grossman & Ezra Oberfield, 2021. "The Elusive Explanation for the Declining Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 29165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2017. "Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1693-1754.
    5. Brant Abbott & Giovanni Gallipoli & Costas Meghir & Giovanni L. Violante, 2019. "Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers in Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2569-2624.
    6. Lochner, L. & Monge-Naranjo, A., 2016. "Student Loans and Repayment," Handbook of the Economics of Education,, Elsevier.
    7. Tertilt, Michèle & Exler, Florian & Livshits, Igor & MacGee, Jim, 2020. "Consumer Credit with Over-Optimistic Borrowers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Raj Chetty, 2006. "A New Method of Estimating Risk Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1821-1834, December.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    10. Susan M. Dynarski & Judith E. Scott-Clayton, 2008. "Complexity and Targeting in Federal Student Aid: A Quantitative Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 22, pages 109-150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Lance Lochner, 2020. "Early and Late Human Capital Investments, Borrowing Constraints, and the Family," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1065-1147.
    12. Susan Dynarski & CJ Libassi & Katherine Michelmore & Stephanie Owen, 2021. "Closing the Gap: The Effect of Reducing Complexity and Uncertainty in College Pricing on the Choices of Low-Income Students," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1721-1756, June.
    13. Ionescu, Felicia & Simpson, Nicole, 2016. "Default risk and private student loans: Implications for higher education policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 119-147.
    14. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2016. "On the optimal provision of social insurance: Progressive taxation versus education subsidies in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 72-98.
    15. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2012. "Learning about Academic Ability and the College Dropout Decision," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(4), pages 707-748.
    16. Matsuda, Kazushige, 2020. "Optimal timing of college subsidies: Enrollment, graduation, and the skill premium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Nakajima, Makoto, 2017. "Assessing bankruptcy reform in a model with temptation and equilibrium default," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 42-64.
    18. Caucutt, Elizabeth M. & Kumar, Krishna B., 2003. "Higher education subsidies and heterogeneity: a dynamic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1459-1502, June.
    19. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    20. Caroline M. Hoxby & Sarah Turner, 2015. "What High-Achieving Low-Income Students Know about College," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 514-517, May.
    21. Felicia Ionescu, 2009. "The Federal Student Loan Program: Quantitative Implications for College Enrollment and Default Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 205-231, January.
    22. Satyajit Chatterjee & Felicia Ionescu, 2012. "Insuring student loans against the financial risk of failing to complete college," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(3), pages 393-420, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matsuda, Kazushige & Mazur, Karol, 2022. "College education and income contingent loans in equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 100-117.
    2. Ionescu, Felicia & Simpson, Nicole, 2016. "Default risk and private student loans: Implications for higher education policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 119-147.
    3. Matsuda, Kazushige, 2020. "Optimal timing of college subsidies: Enrollment, graduation, and the skill premium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Lance Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2014. "Student Loans and Repayment: Theory, Evidence and Policy," Working Papers 2014-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Felicia Ionescu, 2011. "Risky Human Capital and Alternative Bankruptcy Regimes for Student Loans," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(2), pages 153-206.
    6. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    7. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    8. Ben Heijdra & Fabian Kindermann & Laurie Reijnders, 2017. "Life in shakles? The quantitative implications of reforming the educational financing system," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 25, pages 37-57, April.
    9. Jackson, Paul, 2023. "Equilibrium underemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Balmaceda, Felipe, 2021. "A failure of the market for college education and on-the-job human capital," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Gustavo Mellior, 2019. "Higher Education Funding, Welfare and Inequality in Equilibrium," Working Papers 202301, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics, revised 2023.
    12. Kartik B. Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Urvi Neelakantan & Ivan Vidangos, 2020. "Who Values Access to College?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 20-03, pages 1-5, March.
    13. Youngmin Park, 2018. "Inequality in Parental Transfers, Borrowing Constraints, and Optimal Higher Education Subsidies," 2018 Meeting Papers 623, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Ji, Yan, 2021. "Job Search under Debt: Aggregate Implications of Student Loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 741-759.
    15. Lance Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2012. "Credit Constraints in Education," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 225-256, July.
    16. Diego Daruich, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Early Childhood Development Policies," Working Papers 2018-010, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    17. Ciprian Domnisoru & Ioana Cosmina Schiopu, 2021. "The Rise of For-Profit Higher Education: A General Equilibrium Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9134, CESifo.
    18. Kemptner, Daniel & Tolan, Songül, 2018. "The role of time preferences in educational decision making," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-39.
    19. Ortigueira, Salvador & Siassi, Nawid, 2023. "On the optimal reform of income support for single parents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    20. Lance J. Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2011. "The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2487-2529, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Post-secondary education; Over-optimism; Student loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G5 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2022-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demcmca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.