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Lingering illness or sudden death? Pre-exit employment developments in German establishments

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Author Info

  • Daniel Fackler

    ()
    (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Claus Schnabel

    ()
    (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Joachim Wagner

    ()
    (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany)

Abstract

Using a large administrative dataset for Germany, this paper compares employment developments in exiting and surviving establishments. For both West and East Germany we find a clear “shadow of death” effect reflecting lingering illness: establishments shrink dramatically already several years before closure, employment growth rates differ strongly between exiting and surviving establishments, and this difference becomes stronger as exit approaches. We further show that prior to exit the workforce becomes on average more skilled, more female and older in exiting compared to surviving establishments. These effects are more clearly visible in West than in East Germany. Our results also hold when applying a matching approach.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics with number 258.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lue:wpaper:258

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Web page: http://leuphana.de/institute/ivwl.html

Related research

Keywords: firm exits; shadow of death; Germany;

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References

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  1. Carlos Carreira & Paulino Teixeira, 2009. "The Shadow of Death: Analysing the Pre-Exit Productivity of Portuguese Manufacturing Firms," GEMF Working Papers 2008-05, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  2. Lionel Nesta & Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Michel Quéré, 2006. "Productivity and Market Selection of French Manufacturing Firms in the Nineties," Sciences Po publications 2006-04, Sciences Po.
  3. Lori G. Kletzer, 1998. "Job Displacement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 115-136, Winter.
  4. Schwerdt, Guido, 2011. "Labor turnover before plant closure: "Leaving the sinking ship" vs. "Captain throwing ballast overboard"," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 93-101, January.
  5. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Lionel Nesta & Michel Qu�r�, 2008. "Market selection along the firm life cycle," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 753-777, August.
  6. J. Bradford Jensen & Andrew Bernard, 2005. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," Working Papers 05-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  7. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805 Elsevier.
  8. Griliches, Zvi & Regev, Haim, 1995. "Firm productivity in Israeli industry 1979-1988," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 175-203, January.
  9. Boris Hirsch & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2010. "Differences in Labor Supply to Monopsonistic Firms and the Gender Pay Gap: An Empirical Analysis Using Linked Employer-Employee Data from Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(2), pages 291-330, 04.
  10. Paul A. Lengermann & Lars Vilhuber, 2002. "Abandoning the Sinking Ship: The Composition of Worker Flows Prior to Displacement," Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Technical Papers 2002-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  11. Marcus Box, 2008. "The death of firms: exploring the effects of environment and birth cohort on firm survival in Sweden," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 379-393, December.
  12. Hethey, Tanja & Schmieder, Johannes F., 2010. "Using worker flows in the analysis of establishment turnover : evidence from German administrative data," FDZ Methodenreport 201006_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  13. Troske, Kenneth R, 1996. "The Dynamic Adjustment Process of Firm Entry and Exit in Manufacturing and Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 705-35, October.
  14. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2005. "Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Matching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 485, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  15. Richard Disney & Jonathan Haskel & Ylva Heden, 2003. "Entry, Exit and Establishment Survival in UK Manufacturing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 91-112, 03.
  16. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Juan Mañez-Castillejo, 2008. "The Resource-Based Theory of the Firm and Firm Survival," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 231-249, March.
  17. Anja Spengler, 2008. "European Data Watch: The Establishment History Panel," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(3), pages 501-509.
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