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Existence of Bifurcation in Macroeconomic Dynamics: Grandmont was Right

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  • William Barnett

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Yijun He

    (School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University)

Abstract

Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic general-equilibrium macroeconomic models are stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with all forms of multiperiodic dynamics between. But Grandmont provided his result with a model in which all policies are Ricardian equivalent, no frictions exist, employment is always full, competition is perfect, and all solutions are Pareto optimal. Hence he was not able to reach conclusions about the policy relevance of his dramatic discovery. As a result, Barnett and He (1999, 2001, 2002) investigated a Keynesian structural model, and found results supporting Grandmont¡¯s conclusions within the parameter space of the Bergstrom- Wymer continuous-time dynamic macroeconometric model of the UK economy. That prototypical Keynesian model was produced from a system of second order differential equations. The model contains frictions through adjustment lags, displays reasonable dynamics fitting the UK economy¡¯s data, and is clearly policy relevant. In addition, initial results by Barnett and Duzhak (2006) indicate the possible existence of Hopf bifurcation within the parameter space of recent New Keynesian models. Lucas-critique criticism of Keynesian structural models has motivated development of Euler equations models having policy-invariant deep parameters, which are invariant to policy rule changes. Hence, we continue the investigation of policy-relevant bifurcation by searching the parameter space of the best known of the Euler equations general-equilibrium macroeconometric models: the Leeper and Sims (1994) model. We find the existence of singularity bifurcation boundaries within the parameter space. Although never before found in an economic model, our explanation of the relevant theory reveals that singularity bifurcation may be a common property of Euler equations models. These results further confirm Grandmont¡¯s views. Beginning with Grandmont¡¯s findings with a classical model, we continue to follow the path from the Bergstrom-Wymer policy-relevant Keynesian model, to New Keynesian models, and now to Euler equations macroeconomic models having deep parameters. Grandmont was right.

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Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 200610.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:200610

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Keywords: Bifurcation; inference; dynamic general equilibrium; Pareto optimality; Hopf bifurcation; Euler equations; Leeper and Sims model; singularity bifurcation; stability.;

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  1. Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wandasiewicz, S., 1994. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a second-order continuous time macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 731-761.
  2. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:5:p:713-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Barnett, William A. & He, Yijun, 2002. "Stabilization Policy As Bifurcation Selection: Would Stabilization Policy Work If The Economy Really Were Unstable?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 713-747, November.
  4. Medio,Alfredo & Gallo,Giampaolo, 1995. "Chaotic Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521484619, April.
  5. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April.
  6. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
  7. Binder, M. & Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "Stochastic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9615, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1979. "The hopf bifurcation and the existence and stability of closed orbits in multisector models of optimal economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 421-444, December.
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  10. Nieuwenhuis, Herman J. & Schoonbeek, Lambert, 1997. "Stability and the structure of continuous-time economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 311-340, July.
  11. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. " Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-83, June.
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