Bifurcations in Continuous-Time Macroeconomic Systems
AbstractThis research investigates bifurcation phenomena in a continuous-time model of the United Kingdom. We use the Bergstrom, Nowman, and Wymer continuous-time dynamic macroeconometric model of the UK economy. We find that bifurcations are important with this model for understanding the dynamic properties of the system and for determining which parameters are the most important to those dynamic properties. We have discovered that both saddle-node bifurcations and Hopf bifurcations indeed exist with this model within the model's region of plausible parameter settings. We find that the existence of Hopf bifurcations is particularly useful, since those bifurcations may provide explanations for some cyclical phenomena in the macroeconomy. We further design numerical algorithms to locate the bifurcation boundaries, which we display in three dimensional color bifurcation diagrams. A notable and perhaps surprising fact is that both types of bifurcation can coexist with this well-regarded UK model---in the same neighborhood of the parameter space.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9805018.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jun 1998
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - Postscript Compressed; pages: 24 ; figures: included. This paper was presented by Yijun He at the annual meetings of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics and has been submitted to the Society's journal, the Journal of Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, which is an online journal published by MIT Press.
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nonlinearity chaos bifurcation macroeconomics UK continuous time;
Other versions of this item:
- William Barnett & Yijun He, 2012. "Bifurcations in Continuous-Time Macroeconomic Systems," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201226, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1998-10-02 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wandasiewicz, S., 1994. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a second-order continuous time macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 731-761.
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- Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: I The Starting Model," Working Paper Series 93, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Barnett, William A. & He, Susan, 2010.
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Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1345-1354, November.
- Barnett, William A. & He, Susan, 2009. "Existence of Singularity Bifurcation in an Euler-Equations Model of the United States Economy: Grandmont was Right," MPRA Paper 12803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: II Intensive Form and Steady State Analysis of the Model," Working Paper Series 94, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- A. R. Bergstrom, 2001. "Stability and wage acceleration in macroeconomic models of cyclical growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 327-340.
- Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: IV Numerical Investigations of the Core 18D Model," Working Paper Series 96, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
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