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Fertility and Female Employment Dynamics in Europe: The Effect of Using Alternative Econometric Modeling Assumptions

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Author Info
Michaud, Pierre-Carl () (RAND)
Tatsiramos, Konstantinos () (IZA)

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Abstract

We investigate the direct and long-run effects of fertility on employment in Europe estimating dynamic models of labor supply under different assumptions regarding the exogeneity of fertility and modeling assumptions related to initial conditions, unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation in the error terms. We find overall large direct and long-run effects of giving birth on employment probabilities, and these effects differ considerably across countries. We find that within countries the results are sensitive to the statistical assumption made on initial conditions, the inclusion of serial correlation and the assumption of strict exogeneity of children. However, the pattern across countries is robust to these assumptions. We show that such patterns are largely consistent with prevailing institutional differences related to the flexibility of the labor markets and family policies.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3853.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3853

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Related research
Keywords: intertemporal labor supply; female employment; fertility; dynamic binary choice models; initial conditions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Carrasco, Raquel, 2001. "Binary Choice with Binary Endogenous Regressors in Panel Data: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Female Labor Participation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 385-94, October.
    Other versions:
  3. Alessie, Rob & Stefan Hochguertel & Arthur van Soest, 2002. "Ownership of Stocks and Mutual Funds: A Panel Data Analysis," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 3, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Daniela Del Boca & Robert M. Sauer, 2006. "Life Cycle Employment and Fertility Across Institutional Environments," IZA Discussion Papers 2285, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul, 1996. "Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 85-134. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Garibaldi, Pietro & Wasmer, Etienne, 2003. "Raising Female Employment: Reflexions and Policy Tools," IZA Discussion Papers 951, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Albrecht, James W. & Edin, Per-Anders & Sundström, Marianne & Vroman, Susan B., 1996. "Career Interruptions and Subsequent Earnings: A Reexamination Using Swedish Data," Working Paper Series 1996:23, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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  8. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part. [Downloadable!]
  9. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2000. "A framework for estimating dynamic, unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 245-250, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-77, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Carro, Jesus M., 2007. "Estimating dynamic panel data discrete choice models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 503-528, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bratti, Massimiliano & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos, 2008. "Explaining How Delayed Motherhood Affects Fertility Dynamics in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 3907, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  14. Nakamura, Alice & Nakamura, Masao, 1985. "Dynamic models of the labor force behavior of married women which can be estimated using limited amounts of past information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 273-298, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Browning, Martin, 1992. "Children and Household Economic Behavior," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1434-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Haan, Peter & Wrohlich, Katharina, 2009. "Can Child Care Policy Encourage Employment and Fertility? Evidence from a Structural Model," IZA Discussion Papers 4503, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter Haan & Michal Myck, 2009. "Dynamics of Poor Health and Non-Employment," SOEPpapers 195, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-30.

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