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A Multinomial Logit Model of College Stopout and Dropout Behavior

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Author Info

  • Stratton, Leslie S.

    ()
    (Virginia Commonwealth University)

  • O'Toole, Dennis M.

    ()
    (Virginia Commonwealth University)

  • Wetzel, James N.

    ()
    (Virginia Commonwealth University)

Abstract

Studies of college attrition typically assume that all attrition is permanent. We use data from the 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Survey to distinguish between long-term dropout and short-term stopout behavior in order to test that assumption. We find significant differences between those who stop out and those who drop out in the first year. Failure to recognize these differences biases the results of standard attrition models and hence may cause policy makers to pursue inappropriate policy initiatives or incorrectly target at-risk populations. Furthermore, the type of financial aid received is found to have a differential impact on stopout versus dropout probabilities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1634.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Economics of Education Review, 2008, 27 (3), 319-331
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1634

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Keywords: college dropout; college persistence;

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  1. Light, Audrey, 1995. "Hazard model estimates of the decision to reenroll in school," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 381-406, December.
  2. Altonji, Joseph G, 1993. "The Demand for and Return to Education When Education Outcomes Are Uncertain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 48-83, January.
  3. Montmarquette, Claude & Mahseredjian, Sophie & Houle, Rachel, 2001. "The determinants of university dropouts: a bivariate probability model with sample selection," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 475-484, October.
  4. Hoenack, Stephen A. & Pierro, Daniel J., 1990. "An econometric model of a public university's income and enrollments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 403-423, December.
  5. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
  6. Manski, Charles F., 1989. "Schooling as experimentation: a reappraisal of the postsecondary dropout phenomenon," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 305-312, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Kalenkoski, Charlene Marie & Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia, 2008. "Parental Transfers, Student Achievement, and the Labor Supply of College Students," Working Papers 416, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  2. Burks, Stephen V. & Lewis, Connor & Kivi, Paul & Wiener, Amanda & Anderson, Jon E. & Götte, Lorenz & DeYoung, Colin G. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2014. "Moving Ahead by Thinking Backwards: Cognitive Skills, Personality, and Economic Preferences in Collegiate Success," IZA Discussion Papers 7952, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Horacio Matos-Díaz, 2009. "Determinantes de las tasas universitarias de graduación, retención y deserción en Puerto Rico: Un estudio de Caso," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  4. Stephen V. Burks & Connor Lewis & Paul Kivia & Amanda Wiener & Jon E. Anderson & Lorenz Götten & Colin DeYoung & Aldo Rustichini, 2014. "Moving Ahead by Thinking Backwards: Cognitive Skills, Personality, and Economic Preferences in Collegiate Success," Discussion Papers 2014-01, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
  5. Stratton, Leslie S. & O'Toole, Dennis M. & Wetzel, James N., 2006. "Are the Factors Affecting Dropout Behavior Related to Initial Enrollment Intensity for College Undergraduates?," IZA Discussion Papers 1951, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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