Fundamentals Of The Us And The Uk Interest Rates Under The Rational Expectation Scheme
AbstractThis paper presents a macro-econometric model for medium- and long-term nominal interest rates and the empirical results obtained with US and UK data. The explanatory equation for nominal interest rates is derived from the equilibrium condition of the savings market and takes real, financial and foreign aspects into account. Expected values of the inflation rate appear as regressors and, assuming rational expectations, two alternative models are obtained and estimated by the generalized method of moments. The empirical results for the US support: a) the strong influence of the inflation rate on the nominal interest rate (although the Fisher hypothesis is not completely fulfilled), b) the importance of the growth rate of the real GDP in the interest-rate determination, and c) the fulfilment of the Ricardian hypothesis. The UK nominal interest rate follows the US nominal interest rate.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2000-20.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
rational expectations; gmm estimation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Knot, Klaas, 1995. "On the Determination of Real Interest Rates in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 479-500.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Ghysels, Eric, 1990. "Unit-Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of U.S. Postwar Real Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 145-52, April.
- Jyh-Lin Wu & Show-Lin Chen, 1998. "A Re-examination of Real Interest Rate Parity," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 837-851, November.
- Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-59, October.
- Mª Mar Sánchez, 2002. "Interest-Rate Models For Us And Uk With Mixed Inflationary Expectations. A Comparison With The Rational And The Adaptive Scheme," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Departamento de Edición).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.