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Regional Convergence and Common, Stochastic Long-run Trends: A Re-examination of the US Regional Data

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  • Efthymios Tsionas

Abstract

The paper utilizes modern econometric techniques organized around I(1) and cointegration analysis to examine the number of common, stochastic long-run trends in regional incomes and assess the hypothesis of regional convergence for the US over the period 1929-1997. Time series evidence is conflicting but tends to indicate the presence of too many common, stochastic, long-run trends, thus providing no support for the convergence hypothesis. L'article emploie des techniques econometriques recentes basees sur des analyses I(1) et cointegree afin d'examiner le nombre de tendances communes, stochastiques a long terme des revenus regionaux et d'evaluer l'hypothese qui avance la notion de la convergence regionale aux Etats-Unis sur la periode qui va de 1929 a 1997. Des preuves presentees en serie temporelle s'averent contradictoires mais semblent indiquer la presence d'un nombre trop eleve de tendances communes, stochastiques a long terme, ce qui ne vient pas a l'appui de l'hypothese qui avance la notion de convergence. Dieser Aufsatz bedient sich moderner, okonometrischer Techniken, die um 1(1) angeordnet sind, sowie einer Ko-integrationsanalyse, um die Zahl der gewohnlichen, stochastisch langfristigen Tendenzen bei regionalen Einkommen zu untersuchen, und die Hypothese regionaler Konvergenz fur die Vereinigten Staaten im Zeitraum 1929-1997 zu beurteilen. Zeitserienbeweise widersprechen einander, zeigen jedoch meist ein Vorhandensein zu vieler gewohnlicher, stochasisch langfristiger Tendenzen an, und stellen somit keine Stu�tzung der Konvergenzhypothese dar.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 35 (2001)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 689-696

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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:35:y:2001:i:8:p:689-696

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Related research

Keywords: Convergence; Cointegration; Unit Root; Non-STATIONARITY;

References

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  1. Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995. "The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "Euro-land: any good for the European South?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-81, January.
  6. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  7. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
  9. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
  10. Efthymios Tsionas, 2000. "Regional Growth and Convergence: Evidence from the United States," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 231-238.
  11. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 1998. "Monte Carlo inference in econometric models with symmetric stable disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-401, November.
  12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  13. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  14. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April.
  15. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1994. "Cross-sectional regressions and the empirics of economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 739-747, April.
  16. DeJong, David N., 1992. "Co-integration and trend-stationarity in macroeconomic time series : Evidence from the likelihood function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 347-370, June.
  17. John F. Geweke, 1996. "Simulation-based Bayesian inference for economic time series," Working Papers 570, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-59, October.
  19. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  20. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796 Elsevier.
  2. Mark J. Holmes & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2013. "A note on the extent of US regional income convergence," Discussion Paper Series 2013_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2013.
  3. Weber, William L. & Domazlicky, Bruce R., 2006. "Capital Deepening and Manufacturing's Contribution to Regional Economic Convergence," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 36(1).
  4. Alexiadis, Stilianos & Eleftheriou, Konstantinos, 2010. "The Morphology of Income Convergence in US States: New Evidence using an Error-Correction-Model," MPRA Paper 20096, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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