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Time series tests of convergence of Chinese regional and provincial economic performance

Author

Listed:
  • Daly, Vince

    (Kingston University London)

  • Li, Hong

    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

This paper uses multivariate time series methods to investigate convergence of Chinese real GDP per capita at regional and provincial levels over the period 1952 – 2001. We reject convergence across regions. However, we find evidence of common trends among the provincial real incomes within Eastern and Central regions respectively while the cointegration relationships within the Western region are not sufficient to impose a common trend. We conclude that, contrary to the announced development policy of the Chinese government, the regions of China do not share a common development path.

Suggested Citation

  • Daly, Vince & Li, Hong, 2003. "Time series tests of convergence of Chinese regional and provincial economic performance," Economics Discussion Papers 2003-10, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:kngedp:2003_010
    as

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    File URL: http://eprints.kingston.ac.uk/6672/1/Li-H-6672.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    2. Efthymios Tsionas, 2001. "Regional Convergence and Common, Stochastic Long-run Trends: A Re-examination of the US Regional Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 689-696.
    3. Quah, D., 1990. "Galton'S Fallacy And The Tests Of The Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 552, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. Quah, Danny, 1993. " Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 427-443, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; economic growth; regional convergence; cointegration; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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