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Co-Learning Patterns As Emergent Market Phenomena: An Electricity Market Illustration

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  • Li, Hongyan
  • Tesfatsion, Leigh

Abstract

The definition of emergence remains problematic, particularly for systems with purposeful human interactions.� This study explores the practical import of this concept within a specific market context: namely, a double-auction market for wholesale electric power that operates over a transmission grid with spatially located buyers and sellers. Each profit-seeking seller is a learning agent that attempts to adjust its daily supply offers to its best advantage.� The sellers are co-learners in the sense that their supply offer adjustments are in response to past market outcomes that reflect the past supply offer choices of all sellers.� Attention is focused on the emergence of co-learning patterns, that is, global market patterns that arise and persist over time as a result of seller co-learning.� Examples of co-learning patterns include correlated seller supply offer behaviors and correlated seller net earnings outcomes.� Heat maps are used to display and interpret co-learning pattern findings.� One key finding is that co-learning strongly matters in this auction market environment.� Sellers that behave as Gode-Sunder budget-constrained zero-intelligence agents, randomly selecting their supply offers subject only to a break-even constraint, tend to realize substantially lower net earnings than sellers that tacitly co-learn to correlate their supply offers for market power advantages.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 32222.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 2010
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, May 2012, vol. 82 no. 2-3, pp. 395-419
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:32222

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Keywords: Weak emergence; co-learning patterns; wholesale electric power market; capacity withholding; market power; AMES wholesale power market testbed;

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  1. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
  2. Dechenaux, Emmanuel & Kovenock, Dan, 2007. "Tacit collusion and capacity withholding in repeated uniform price auctions," MPRA Paper 36764, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Nicolaisen, James & Petrov, Valentin & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2001. "Market Power and Efficiency in a Computational Electricity Market with Discriminatory Double-Auction Pricing," Staff General Research Papers 2050, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Li, Hongyan & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2009. "Capacity Withholding in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets: An Agent-Based Test Bed Study," Staff General Research Papers 13070, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1997. "What Makes Markets Allocationally Efficient?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 603-30, May.
  6. Li, Hongyan & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2009. "Development of Open Source Software for Power Market Research: The AMES Test Bed," Staff General Research Papers 13069, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Bulow, Jeremy I & Geanakoplos, John D & Klemperer, Paul D, 1985. "Multimarket Oligopoly: Strategic Substitutes and Complements," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 488-511, June.
  8. Li, Hongyan & Sun, Junjie & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2008. "Dynamic LMP Response Under Alternative Price-Cap and Price-Sensitive Demand Scenarios," Staff General Research Papers 12975, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Weidlich, Anke & Veit, Daniel, 2008. "A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1728-1759, July.
  10. Li, Hongyan & Sun, Junjie & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2009. "Separation and Volatility of Locational Marginal Prices in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets," Staff General Research Papers 13075, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February.
  12. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
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