Crude Oil Prices and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Forecasting Exercise
AbstractIf oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has price setting capacity, (b) a high share of OPEC imports comes from the euro area and (c) alternatives to oil invoicing in US dollar are costly. We give evidence that using information on the US dollar/euro exchange rate (and its determinants) improves oil price forecasts significantly. We discuss possible implications that these results might suggest with regard to the stabilization of oil prices or the adjustment of global imbalances.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2008-08.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Universitätsstraße 15, A - 6020 Innsbruck
Web page: http://www.uibk.ac.at/fakultaeten/volkswirtschaft_und_statistik/index.html.en
More information through EDIRC
oil price; exchange rate; forecasting; multivariate time series models.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-05-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-05-24 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ENE-2008-05-24 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2008-05-24 (Forecasting)
- NEP-IFN-2008-05-24 (International Finance)
- NEP-OPM-2008-05-24 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994.
"The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices,"
IMF Working Papers
94/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Paul A. Raschky & Manijeh Schwindt, . "Aid, Catastrophes and the Samaritan's Dilemma," Working Papers 2008-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
- Martin G. Kocher & Ganna Pogrebna & Matthias Sutter, . "The Determinants of Managerial Decisions Under Risk," Working Papers 2008-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Andrea M. Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul A. Raschky, . "Productive disasters? Evidence from European firm level data," Working Papers 2007-25, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Kocher, Martin G. & Cherry, Todd & Kroll, Stephan & Netzer, Robert J. & Sutter, Matthias, 2008.
"Conditional cooperation on three continents,"
Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 175-178, December.
- Martin G. Kocher & Todd L. Cherry & Stephan Kroll & Robert J. Netzer & Matthias Sutter, 2007. "Conditional cooperation on three continents," Working Papers 2007-02, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Kocher, Martin G. & Cherry, Todd & Kroll, Stephan & Netzer, Robert J. & Sutter, Matthias, 2008. "Conditional cooperation on three continents," Munich Reprints in Economics 18211, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Hanke, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Sutter, Matthias, 2010.
"The economic consequences of a Tobin tax--An experimental analysis,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 58-71, May.
- Michael Hanke & J?rgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Matthias Sutter, 2007. "The economic consequences of a Tobin tax - An experimental analysis," Working Papers 2007-18, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Neil Foster & Johann Scharler, 2007. "Barriers to Technology Adoption, International R&D Spillovers and Growth," Working Papers 2007-09, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010.
"Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach,"
Working Paper Series
1170, European Central Bank.
- Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
- Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013.
"Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?,"
Ruhr Economic Papers
0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
- Filip Novotný, 2012. "The Link Between the Brent Crude Oil Price and the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(2), pages 220-232.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janette Walde).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.