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Volatility and Growth in Latin America: An Episodic Approach

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  • Ms. Ratna Sahay
  • Rishi Goyal

Abstract

This paper compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970, examining in particular the role of policy volatility. Macroeconomic outcomes are distinguished from macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and reversals, shocks, and institutional constraints. Based on previous work, a composite measure of structural reforms is constructed for the 1970-2004 period. We find that outcomes and policies are more volatile in low growth episodes, while shocks (except U.S. interest rates) are similar across episodes. Fiscal policy volatility is associated with lower growth, but fiscal policy procyclicality is not. Low levels of market-oriented reforms and structural reform reversals are also associated with lower growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Ratna Sahay & Rishi Goyal, 2006. "Volatility and Growth in Latin America: An Episodic Approach," IMF Working Papers 2006/287, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/287
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    8. Arindam Mondal & Somnath Lahiri & Sougata Ray, 2021. "Strategic Response to Inward Foreign Direct Investment: A Study of Indian Family Firms," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 207-233, April.
    9. Mr. Anoop Singh & Mr. Martin D. Cerisola, 2006. "Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence: Some Historical Perspectives," IMF Working Papers 2006/252, International Monetary Fund.
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    11. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments," IMF Working Papers 2006/210, International Monetary Fund.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia: Is the Current Crisis Different?," IMF Working Papers 2010/068, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Alvaro CUERVO-CAZURRA & Luis Alfonso DAU, 2008. "Structural Reform And Firm Profitability In Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp940, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. Mr. Anoop Singh, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility: The Policy Lessons from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2006/166, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Roberto Steiner & Irene Clavijo & Natalia Salazar, 2008. "Colombia´s Efforts at Achieving Inclusive and Sustainable Growth: The Road Traveled and the Challenges Ahead," Informes de Investigación 9058, Fedesarrollo.
    16. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Christopher Faircloth & Marijn Verhoeven, 2007. "Public Expenditure in Latin America: Trends and Key Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 2007/021, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra & Luis Alfonso Dau, 2009. "Structural Reform and Firm Exports," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 479-507, September.
    18. Gutiérrez, Mario A., 2007. "Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: growth transitions rather than steady states," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5425, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    20. Xavier, Wlamir Gonçalves & Bandeira-de-Mello, Rodrigo & Marcon, Rosilene, 2014. "Institutional environment and Business Groups' resilience in Brazil," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 900-907.
    21. Mr. Andreas Billmeier & Miss Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia—Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 2007/157, International Monetary Fund.

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