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The dog that did not bark: Insider trading and crashes

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Author Info

  • José M. Marín

    ()
    (IE Business School and IMDEA)

  • Jacques Olivier

    ()
    (HEC Paris)

Abstract

This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. A key feature of our theory is that rational uninformed investors may react more strongly to the absence of insider sales than to their presence (the “dog that did not bark” effect). We test our hypothesis against competing stories such as patterns of insider trading driven by earnings announcement dates, or insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution.

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File URL: http://repec.imdea.org/pdf/imdea-wp2007-20.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales in its series Working Papers with number 2007-20.

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Date of creation: 28 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Finance 63(5), October 2008: 2429-2476
Handle: RePEc:imd:wpaper:wp2007-20

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Related research

Keywords: insider trading; rational expectations equilibrium; trading constraints; volatility; crashes; short- sales constraint;

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References

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  1. Lakonishok, Josef & Lee, Inmoo, 2001. "Are Insider Trades Informative?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 79-111.
  2. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May.
  3. Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 11367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
  5. Bhattacharya, U. & Spiegel, M., 1989. "Insiders, Outsiders And Market Breakdowns," Papers fb-_89-20, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  6. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "Rational Panics and Stock Market Crashes," CRSP working papers 483, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  7. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 2003. "Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 453-471, May.
  8. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1993. " Long-Term Market Overreaction or Biases in Computed Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 39-63, March.
  9. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Sylvain Friederich & Alan Gregory & John Matatko & Ian Tonks, 2002. "Short-run Returns around the Trades of Corporate Insiders on the London Stock Exchange," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 7-30.
  11. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 391749000000000553, www.najecon.org.
  12. H. Henry Cao & Joshua D. Coval & David Hirshleifer, 2002. "Sidelined Investors, Trading-Generated News, and Security Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 615-648, March.
  13. Jose Marin & Rohit Rahi, 1996. "Information Revelation and Market Incompleteness," Archive Working Papers 024, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  14. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December.
  15. Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January.
  16. Meulbroek, Lisa K, 1992. " An Empirical Analysis of Illegal Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1661-99, December.
  17. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Bubbles and Crises The Economic Journal," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  18. Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April.
  19. Suleyman Basak & David Cass & Juan Manuel Licari & Anna Pavlova, 2006. "Multiplicity and Sunspots in General Financial Equilibrium with Portfolio Constraints," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  20. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December.
  21. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dong Lou, 2009. "Attracting investor attention through advertising," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29311, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. André Betzer & Jasmin Gider & Daniel Metzger & Erik Theissen, 2011. "Strategic Trading and Trade Reporting by Corporate Insiders," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp11015, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
  3. Stefano Giglio & Kelly Shue, 2013. "No News is News: Do Markets Underreact to Nothing?," NBER Working Papers 18914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Benjamin Golez & José M. Marín, 2010. "Price support in the stock market," Working Papers 2010-16, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  5. José M. Marín & Antoni Sureda-Gomila, 2007. "Firms vs. insiders as traders of last resort," Working Papers 2007-21, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.

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