Seasonal Cycles in European Agricultural Commodity Prices
AbstractThis paper explores the seasonal cycles of European agricultural commodity prices. We focus on three food crops (barley, soft and durum wheat) and on beef. We investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit-root stochastic and whether seasonal cycle for specific agricultural commodities have converged over time. Finally, we develop time-series models that are capable of forecasting agricultural prices on a quarterly basis. Firstly, we find that seasonal cycles in agricultural commodity prices are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries varies over agricultural commodities. The prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not always match the statistical in-sample evidence.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 192.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2006-09-30 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2006-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2006-09-30 (Econometrics)
- NEP-EEC-2006-09-30 (European Economics)
- NEP-ETS-2006-09-30 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2006-09-30 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2006-09-30 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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