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Overreaction and Multiple Tail Dependence at the High-frequency Level — The Copula Rose

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  • Wing Lon Ng
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    Abstract

    This paper applies a non- and a semiparametric copula-based approach to analyze the first-order autocorrelation of returns in high frequency financial time series. Using the EUREX D3047 tick data from the German stock index, it can be shown that the temporal dependence structure of price movements is not always negatively correlated as assumed in the stylized facts in the finance literature. Depending on the sampling frequency, the estimated copulas exhibit some kind of overreaction phenomena and multiple tail dependence, revealing patterns similar to the compass rose.

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    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2006-086.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2006-086.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-086

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    Keywords: High Frequency Data; Non- and Semiparametric Copulas; Overreaction; Tail Dependence; Compass Rose;

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    1. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March.
    2. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2006. "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 17-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2005. "Correcting the Errors: Volatility Forecast Evaluation Using High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 279-296, 01.
    16. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1994. "Market Microstructure and Stock Return Predictions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 179-213.
    17. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
    18. Kramer, Walter & Runde, Ralf, 1997. "Chaos and the compass rose," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 113-118, February.
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