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Stock Price Clustering and Discreteness: The "Compass Rose" and Predictability

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  • Constantinos E. Vorlow

Abstract

In this letter we investigate the information provided by the "compass rose" (Crack, T.F. and Ledoit, O. (1996), Journal of Finance, 51(2), pg. 751-762) patterns revealed in phase portraits of daily stock returns. It has been initially suggested that the compass rose is just a manifestation of price clustering and discreteness and the tick size, factors that can affect the unbiasedness of an array of statistical tests based on stock returns. We show that this may not entirely be the case.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantinos E. Vorlow, 2004. "Stock Price Clustering and Discreteness: The "Compass Rose" and Predictability," Papers cond-mat/0408013, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0408013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amilon, Henrik, 2003. "GARCH estimation and discrete stock prices: an application to low-priced Australian stocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 215-222, November.
    2. Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2003. "Is it Possible to Study Chaotic and ARCH Behaviour Jointly? Application of a Noisy Mackey–Glass Equation with Heteroskedastic Errors to the Paris Stock Exchange Returns Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 257-276, June.
    3. Antoniou, Antonios & Vorlow, Constantinos E., 2004. "Recurrence quantification analysis of wavelet pre-filtered index returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 257-262.
    4. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    5. William A. Brock & Ehung G. Baek, 1991. "Some Theory of Statistical Inference for Nonlinear Science," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(4), pages 697-716.
    6. Antonios Antoniou & Constantinos E. Vorlow, 2004. "Price Clustering and Discreteness: Is there Chaos behind the Noise?," Papers cond-mat/0407471, arXiv.org.
    7. Wang, Eliza & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2000. "Tick size and the compass rose: further insights," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 119-125, August.
    8. Wang, Huaiqing & Wang, Chen, 2002. "Visibility of the compass rose in financial asset returns: A quantitative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1099-1111, June.
    9. Fang, Yue, 2002. "The compass rose and random walk tests," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 299-310, May.
    10. Gleason, Kimberly C. & Lee, Chun I. & Mathur, Ike, 2000. "An explanation for the compass rose pattern," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 127-133, August.
    11. Michael D. McKenzie & Alex Frino, 2003. "The tick/volatility ratio as a determinant of the compass rose: empirical evidence from decimalisation on the NYSE," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 43(3), pages 331-344, November.
    12. Crack, Timothy Falcon & Ledoit, Olivier, 1996. "Robust Structure without Predictability: The "Compass Rose" Pattern of the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 751-762, June.
    13. An-Sing Chen, 1997. "The square compass rose: the evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 127-144, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Bien & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2011. "An inflated multivariate integer count hurdle model: an application to bid and ask quote dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 669-707, June.
    2. Katarzyna Bien & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2008. "A multivariate integer count hurdle model: theory and application to exchange rate dynamics," Studies in Empirical Economics, in: Luc Bauwens & Winfried Pohlmeier & David Veredas (ed.), High Frequency Financial Econometrics, pages 31-48, Springer.
    3. Mitchell, Heather & McKenzie, Michael D., 2006. "A note on the Wang and Wang measure of the quality of the compass rose," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3519-3524, December.

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