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Consumption smoothing in a balanced budget regim

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  • Persson, Lovisa

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

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    Abstract

    I investigate consumption smoothing (sensitivity) under a balanced budget rule in Swedish municipalities. In general, I find Swedish municipalities to be highly consumption sensitive during the time period 2001-2011 when the BBR was in place. A one percentage increase in predicted current revenues leads to a 0.74-0.76 percentage increase in current consumption. I use fiscal indicators - the level of own funds and net operating surplus - as proxies for budget balance boundness. Municipalities that perform well in both these fiscal areas are more smoothing than municipalities that do not perform well in either, implying that budget balance plays a role for consumption smoothing behavior. However, consumption sensitivity has decreased in the aggregate since the implementation of the BBR. A possible story is that municipalities were primarily upward sensitive before the BBR, and primarily downward sensitive after the BBR. This explanation also fits the descriptive picture that the aggregate surplus in the sector has turned to positive from negative since the BBR implementation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2013:19.

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    Length: 35 pages
    Date of creation: 30 Oct 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2013_019

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
    Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
    Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Local public finance; Balanced budget rules. Consumption smoothing; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal institutions;

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    1. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
    2. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2006. "A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation and Debt," NBER Working Papers 12100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Douglas Sutherland & Robert Price & Isabelle Joumard, 2005. "Sub-central government fiscal rules," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(2), pages 141-181.
    4. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Harvey S. Rosen, 1989. "Intertemporal analysis of state and local government spending: theory and tests," Working Papers 89-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
    6. Albert Solé-Ollé & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2011. "Local spending and the housing boom," Working Papers 2011/27, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    7. David Roodman, 2007. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Working Papers 125, Center for Global Development.
    8. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Discipline and the Budget Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 401-07, May.
    9. Borge, Lars-Erik & Dahlberg, Matz & Tovmo, Per, 2001. "The Intertemporal Spending Behavior of Local Governments: A Comparative Analysis of the Scandinavian Countries," Working Paper Series 2001:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Marco Battaglini, 2009. "On the Case for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution," 2009 Meeting Papers 131, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Per Pettersson-Lidbom, 2010. "Dynamic Commitment and the Soft Budget Constraint: An Empirical Test," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 154-79, August.
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