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Local spending and the housing boom

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Author Info

  • Albert Solé-Ollé

    ()
    (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)

  • Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal

    ()
    (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)

Abstract

We study the inter-temporal spending behavior of Spanish local governments during the last housing boom (1997-2006), a period of substantial short-run momentum in housing-construction revenues. We argue that the unprecedented growth in these revenues might be one of the reasons underlying the increase in the sensitivity of local government spending to (predictable) revenue changes. To detect evidence of this, we study whether local spending decisions are consistent with forward-looking behavior, working within the framework provided by Holtz-Eakin et al. (1994). Our principal findings are: (i) Local spending shows substantial sensitivity to predictable changes in revenues, suggesting that Spanish local governments did not behave as fully forward-looking agents. (ii) The departure from this benchmark was much higher in those years and/or in those housing markets in which the housing boom was most intense. (iii) The sensitivity was not as great to changes in housing construction revenues as it was to changes in ordinary revenues, but this distinction became blurred as the boom intensified.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) in its series Working Papers with number 2011/27.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2011/11/doc2011-27

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Related research

Keywords: local government; inter-temporal spending behavior; housing cycle;

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References

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is Fiscal Policy often Procyclical?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1556, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Buettner, Thiess & Wildasin, David E., 2006. "The dynamics of municipal fiscal adjustment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 1115-1132, August.
  3. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2012. "Lobbying, political competition, and local land supply: Recent evidence from Spain," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 10-19.
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  7. Giamboni, Luigi & Millemaci, Emanuele & Waldmann, Robert, 2007. "Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption," MPRA Paper 12939, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Albert Sole-Olle & Pilar Sorribas-Navarro, 2009. "The dynamic adjustment of local government budgets: Does Spain Behave differently?," Working Papers in Economics 226, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  9. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
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  12. Holtz-Eakin, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1989. "Municipal Labor Demand In The Presence Of Uncertainty: An Econometric Approach," Discussion Papers 1989_17, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
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  16. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
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  18. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2010. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Working Papers 16230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Persson, Lovisa, 2013. "Consumption smoothing in a balanced budget regime," Working Paper Series, Center for Fiscal Studies 2013:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  2. Persson, Lovisa, 2013. "Consumption smoothing in a balanced budget regim," Working Paper Series 2013:19, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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