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EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence


Author Info

  • Bask, Mikael

    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • de Luna, Xavier

    (Department of Statistics)


How has the European monetary integration, with the creation of the EMU, affected the stability and volatility of foreign exchange? In order to answer this question, stability and volatility measures are defined and calculated. We then use these to investigate the changes in the stability and volatility of 16 European currencies, and in the volatility of the shocks to these currencies. The stability measures are based on smooth Lyapunov exponents, while the volatility measures utilize the variances. The results indicate that when most of the currencies become more stable, the majority also become less volatile. For example, following the agreement of the Maastricht Treaty most currencies became more stable and less volatile, whereas they became less stable and more volatile when the Danish public voted against the treaty. Finally, there is no empirical support for the view that a decision to step aside from a closer monetary collaboration has a negative effect on the stability of the currency.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 565.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0565

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
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Related research

Keywords: EMU; Foreign Exchange; Smooth Lyapunov Exponents; Stability; Volatility;

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Cited by:
  1. Bask, Mikael & Liu, Tung & Widerberg, Anna, 2007. "The stability of electricity prices: Estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 565-572.
  2. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2011. "What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-61, February.
  3. Bask, Mikael, 2010. "Measuring potential market risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 180-186, September.


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