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The economics of natural resources: Understanding and predicting the evolution of supply and demand

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  • Hart, Rob

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

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Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of prices and quantities of non-renewable resources, carefully justifying our assumptions. Resource stocks are inhomogeneous, and there is endogenous directed technological change both in extraction and final-good production. The model explains stylized facts while simultaneously providing a framework for prediction; it yields analytical results in the baseline case, and may be developed to make empirical predictions about real resources. In the baseline case the economy passes through a series of phases: initially resource consumption is low; as technology improves, resource consumption rises and real resource price is constant; in the long run there is a transition to a b.g.p. on which resource consumption is constant and resource price tracks the wage.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences in its series Working Paper Series with number 2012:01.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 04 May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:slueko:2012_001

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Postal: Department of Economics, Box 7013, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: 018-67 1724
Fax: 018-67 3502
Web page: http://www.slu.se/ekonomi
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Related research

Keywords: Directed technological change; Natural resources; Hotelling rule.;

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References

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  1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2009. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 15451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Managi, Shunsuke & Opaluch, James J. & Jin, Di & Grigalunas, Thomas A., 2004. "Technological change and depletion in offshore oil and gas," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 388-409, March.
  3. Cairns, Robert D. & Van Quyen, Nguyen, 1998. "Optimal Exploration for and Exploitation of Heterogeneous Mineral Deposits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 164-189, March.
  4. Roger Fouquet & Peter J.G. Pearson, 2006. "Seven Centuries of Energy Services: The Price and Use of Light in the United Kingdom (1300-2000)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 139-178.
  5. Hart, Rob, 2008. "The timing of taxes on CO2 emissions when technological change is endogenous," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 194-212, March.
  6. Groth, Christian & Schou, Poul, 2007. "Growth and non-renewable resources: The different roles of capital and resource taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 80-98, January.
  7. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
  8. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, 09.
  9. Smulders, J.A. & Nooij, M. de, 2003. "The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-123121, Tilburg University.
  10. Johnson, Manuel H. & Bell, Frederick W. & Bennett, James T., 1980. "Natural resource scarcity: Empirical evidence and public policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 256-271, September.
  11. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2001. "A Microeconometric Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 82-103, July.
  12. Popp, David, 2006. "ENTICE-BR: The effects of backstop technology R&D on climate policy models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 188-222, March.
  13. Schulze, William D., 1974. "The optimal use of non-renewable resources: The theory of extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 53-73, May.
  14. Grimaud, Andre & Rouge, Luc, 2003. "Non-renewable resources and growth with vertical innovations: optimum, equilibrium and economic policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2, Supple), pages 433-453, March.
  15. Chow, Gregory C., 1997. "Dynamic Economics: Optimization by the Lagrange Method," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195101928, Octomber.
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Cited by:
  1. Martin Stuermer & Gregor Schwerhoff, 2013. "Technological change in resource extraction and endogenous growth," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse12_2013, University of Bonn, Germany.

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