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Does permanent income determine the vote?

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  • Lind, Jo Thori

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

I study to what extent voters are forward looking and how future income affects the voting decision. Particularly, I estimate the effect of both transitory and permanent income on preferences for different parties using a panel data set from the Norwegian Election Study. To construct a proxy for permanent income, I use stated expectations about the future economic situation and an estimate of how this affects future income. It turns out that once we include the proxy for permanent income, transitory income has no explanatory power on voting behaviour, supporting the hypothesis of forward looking voting. As expected, a high expected permanent income leads to Conservative voting and a low income to Socialist voting.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 23/2004.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 06 Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2004_023

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
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Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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Keywords: Voting; permanent income; redistribution;

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  1. John E. Roemer, . "The Democratic Political Economy Of Progressive Income Taxation," Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics 97-11, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  2. Stephen Coate & Stephen Morris, . ""Policy Persistence ''," CARESS Working Papres, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences 95-19, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
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  6. Alesina, Alberto F & La Ferrara, Eliana, 2002. "Preferences for Redistribution in the Land of Opportunities," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3155, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  9. Jo Thori Lind, 2010. "Do the Rich Vote Conservative Because They Are Rich?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, Università di Perugia, vol. 1(2).
  10. Corneo, Giacomo & Grüner, Hans Peter, 2001. "Individual Preferences for Political Redistribution," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-61, November.
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  13. Hassler, John & Krusell, Per & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "The dynamics of government," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1331-1358, October.
  14. Roemer, John E., 1998. "Why the poor do not expropriate the rich: an old argument in new garb," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 399-424, December.
  15. Krusell, Per & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1997. "Politico-economic equilibrium and economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 243-272, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Jo Thori Lind, 2005. "Why is there so little redistribution?," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 31, pages 111-125.

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