Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Is Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nielsen, Caren Yinxia Guo

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

Fama and French (1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996) declare that size and book-to-market equity (BM) have strong explanatory power for the cross-section of stock returns, and the risk captured by size and BM is the relative distress of small stocks and value stocks. Firstly, this study examines the pricing power of the default risk, measured by the market revealed credit default swap premiums for individual U.S. firms from 2004 to 2010, in average returns across stocks; secondly, it explores whether the size and BM effects are due to that they proxy for the default risk effect. The tests demonstrate that size effect dominates the joint effect of size and default risk, while both BM and default risk co-work for the joint effect of BM and default risk. Therefore, part of the size and BM effects can be interpreted as default risk effect. As expected, size is priced with a negative risk premium, and BM is priced with a positive risk premium. However, higher default risk is priced with higher expected stock returns only when BM is below a certain level and BM is not priced. Additionally, size indeed proxies for the sensitivity to the default risk factor. Furthermore, the Fama-French factors SMB (small-minus-big) and HML (high-minus-low), mimicking the risks related to size and BM, share some common information with the default risk factor in the asset pricing tests.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/papers/WP11_38.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2011:38.

as in new window
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 04 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2011_038

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Returns; Size Effect; Book-to-Market Effect; Default Risk Effect; Credit Default Swap Premium;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
  2. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment grade bonds and credit default swaps," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0401, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. " Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-90, June.
  4. John M. Griffin & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Book-to-Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2317-2336, October.
  5. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-84, September.
  6. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
  7. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Juan Romo, 2009. "Are There Arbitrage Opportunities in Credit Derivatives Markets? A New Test and an Application to the Case of CDS and ASPs," Business Economics Working Papers wb096303, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  8. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02.
  9. James L. Davis & Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2000. "Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929 to 1997," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 389-406, 02.
  10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  12. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  13. Vassalou, Maria, 2003. "News related to future GDP growth as a risk factor in equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 47-73, April.
  14. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
  15. Acharya, Viral V & Johnson, Tim, 2005. "Insider Trading in Credit Derivatives," CEPR Discussion Papers 5180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  17. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
  18. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  19. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 1996. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 5604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Nijman, T.E. & Swinkels, L.A.P. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2004. "Do countries or industries explain momentum in Europe?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-140720, Tilburg University.
  21. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  22. Chan, K. C. & Chen, Nai-fu & Hsieh, David A., 1985. "An exploratory investigation of the firm size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 451-471, September.
  23. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña Sánchez de Rivera & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2010. "Are all Credit Default Swap databases equal?," Business Economics Working Papers wb104621, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  24. Ilia D. Dichev, 1998. "Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1131-1147, 06.
  25. Gharghori, Philip & Chan, Howard & Faff, Robert, 2009. "Default risk and equity returns: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 580-593, November.
  26. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
  27. Juan Ignacio Pena & Santiago Forte, 2006. "CREDIT SPREADS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE ABOUT THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF STOCKS, BONDS AND CDSs," Business Economics Working Papers wb063310, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  28. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2010. "Is Default Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2523-2559, June.
  29. LeRoy,Stephen F. & Werner,Jan, 2001. "Principles of Financial Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586054.
  30. Liew, Jimmy & Vassalou, Maria, 2000. "Can book-to-market, size and momentum be risk factors that predict economic growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 221-245, August.
  31. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun & Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2009. "Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 469-499, August.
  32. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
  33. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Is Systematic Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns? A Cross-Sectional Analysis Using Credit Derivatives Prices," IMF Working Papers 06/148, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  35. James Davis & Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, . "Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929-1997," CRSP working papers 471, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Yinxia G. Nielsen , Caren, 2013. "Is Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns?," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2013/2, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies, Lund University.
  2. Ferreira Filipe, Sara & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2014. "Pricing Default Risk: The Good, The Bad, and The Anomaly," MPRA Paper 53373, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2011_038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Edgerton).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.