Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The distress premium puzzle

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ali K. Ozdagli
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Fama and French (1992) suggest that the positive value premium results from risk of financial distress. However, recent empirical research has found that financially distressed firms have lower stock returns, using empirical estimates of default probabilities. This paper reconciles the positive value premium and the negative distress premium in a model that decouples actual and risk-neutral default probabilities. Moreover, in agreement with the data, firms with higher bond yields have higher stock returns in the model. The model also captures the fact that book-to-market value dominates financial leverage in explaining stock returns. Finally, the model predicts that firms with higher risk-neutral default probabilities should have higher stock returns, a hypothesis that can be tested using credit default swap premiums.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2010/wp1013.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp2010/wp1013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 10-13.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:10-13

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02210
    Phone: 617-973-3397
    Fax: 617-973-4221
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: Corporations - Finance ; Default (Finance);

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Martin Lettau & Jessica Wachter, 2005. "Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-Based Explanation of the Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 11144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lorenzo Garlappi & Hong Yan, 2011. "Financial Distress and the Cross‐section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 789-822, 06.
    3. Anginer, Deniz & Yildizhan, Celim, 2010. "Is there a distress risk anomaly ? pricing of systematic default risk in the cross section of equity returns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5319, The World Bank.
    4. Jianjun Miao, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December.
    5. Szilagyi, Jan & Hilscher, Jens & Campbell, John, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Scholarly Articles 3199070, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 16151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ball, Ray, 1978. "Anomalies in relationships between securities' yields and yield-surrogates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 103-126.
    8. Fischer, Edwin O & Heinkel, Robert & Zechner, Josef, 1989. " Dynamic Capital Structure Choice: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 19-40, March.
    9. Joao F. Gomes & Lukas Schmid, 2010. "Levered Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 467-494, 04.
    10. Lorenzo Garlappi & Tao Shu & Hong Yan, 2008. "Default Risk, Shareholder Advantage, and Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2743-2778, November.
    11. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:6:p:1799-1843 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:10-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.