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The Marginal Effect of First-Time Homebuyer Status on Mortgage Default and Prepayment

Author

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  • Saty Patrabansh

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract

This paper examines the loan performance of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac first-time homebuyer mortgages originated from 1996 to 2012. First-time homebuyer mortgages generally perform worse than repeat homebuyer mortgages. But first-time homebuyers are younger and have lower credit scores, home equity, and income than repeat home-buyers, and therefore are comparatively less likely to withstand financial stress or take advantage of financial innovations available in the market. The distributional make-up of first-time homebuyers is different than that of repeat homebuyers in terms of many borrower, loan, and property characteristics that can be determined at the time of loan origination. Once these distributional differences are accounted for in an econometric model, there is virtually no difference between the average first-time and repeat home-buyers in their probabilities of mortgage default. Hence, the difference between the first-time and repeat homebuyer mortgage defaults can be attributed to the difference in the distributional make-up of the two groups and not to the premise that first-time homebuyers are an inherently riskier group. However, there appears to be an inherent difference in the prepayment probabilities of first-time and repeat homebuyers holding borrower, loan, and property characteristics constant. First-time homebuyers are less likely to prepay their mortgages compared to repeat homebuyers even after accounting for the distributional make-up of the two groups using information known at the time of loan origination.

Suggested Citation

  • Saty Patrabansh, 2015. "The Marginal Effect of First-Time Homebuyer Status on Mortgage Default and Prepayment," FHFA Staff Working Papers 15-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:15-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jessica Shui & Shriya Murthy, 2017. "Under What Circumstances do First-time Homebuyers Overpay? – An Empirical Analysis Using Mortgage and Appraisal Data," FHFA Staff Working Papers 17-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage; loan performance; default; prepayment; first-time homebuyer; repeat homebuyer; home purchase; homeownership; Fannie Mae; Freddie Mac;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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