IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01577198.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Feedback effect between Volatility of capital flows and financial stability: evidence from Democratic Republic of Congo
[Boucle rétroactive entre la volatilité des flux de capitaux et la stabilité financière : résultat pour la République démocratique du Congo]

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Pinshi

    (UNIKIN - University of Kinshasa)

Abstract

Financial system being the place of metting capital flows (equality between saving and investment), a volatility of capital flows can destroy the robustness and good working of financial system, it means subvert financial stability. The same a weak financial system, few regulated and bad manage can exacerbate volatility of capital flows and finely undermine financial stability. The present study provides evidence on feedback effect between volatility of capital flows and financial stability in Democratic republic of Congo (DRC), and estimate the contributions of macroeconomic and macroprudential policies in the attenuation volatility of capital flows effects on financial stability and in the prevention of instability financial. Assessment dynamic regression model a la Feldstein-Horioka we showed that financial system is widely supplied and financed by internationals capital flows. This implicate Congolese economy is financially mobile, that can be dangerous for financial stability. The study dynamic econometric of financial system's absolute size, we stipulate financial system has a systemic weight on real economy. Hence a shock of financial system could have devastating effects on Congolese economy. We estimate a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for prove the bilateral causality and impacts of macroeconomic and macroprudential policies. With regard to results, it proved on the one there is a feedback effect between volatility of capital flows and financial stability, on the other hand macroeconomic and macroprudential policies can't attenuate volatility of capital flows and prevent instability financial. It prove macroprudential approach is given a better result than monetary policy. The implementation of framework macroprudential by Central Bank of Congo will be beneficial in the realization of financial stability and attenuation volatility of capital flows. Keywords: Volatility of capital flows, financial stability, macroeconomic and macroprudential policies

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Pinshi, 2017. "Feedback effect between Volatility of capital flows and financial stability: evidence from Democratic Republic of Congo [Boucle rétroactive entre la volatilité des flux de capitaux et la stabilité ," Working Papers hal-01577198, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01577198
    DOI: 10.1000/xyz123
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01577198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01577198/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1000/xyz123?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederic Mishkin & Christian Bordes & Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur & Dominique Lacoue-Labarthe, 2007. "Monnaie, banque et marchés financiers," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00308684, HAL.
    2. Bussière, Matthieu & Cheng, Gong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Lisack, Noëmie, 2015. "For a few dollars more: Reserves and growth in times of crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 127-145.
    3. Thorsten Janus & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2016. "Banking crises, external crises and gross capital flows," Globalization Institute Working Papers 273, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    8. Clerc, L. & Loisel, O. & Mojon, B. & Ragot, X., 2010. "The future of monetary policy Summary of the conference held in Rome on 30 September and 1 October 2010," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 20, pages 85-94, Winter.
    9. Isabelle Cadoret-David & Franck Martin & N. Herrard & T. Sandré & Colin Benjamin, 2009. "Econométrie appliquée," Post-Print halshs-00078345, HAL.
    10. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Reserve Requirements," WIFO Working Papers 420, WIFO.
    11. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 865, OECD Publishing.
    12. Magud, Nicolas E. & Vesperoni, Esteban R., 2015. "Exchange rate flexibility and credit during capital inflow reversals: Purgatory … not paradise," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-110.
    13. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    14. Frederic Mishkin & Christian Bordes & Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur & Dominique Lacoue-Labarthe, 2007. "Monnaie, banque et marchés financiers," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308684, HAL.
    15. Lambert, F. & Ramos-Tallada, J. & Rebillard, C., 2011. "Capital controls and spillover effects: evidence from Latin-American countries," Working papers 357, Banque de France.
    16. Frederic Mishkin & Christian Bordes & Dominique Lacoue-Labarthe & Nicolas Leboisne & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2013. "Monnaie, banque et marchés financiers," Post-Print halshs-01006413, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pinshi Paula, Christian, 2016. "Boucle rétroactive entre la volatilité des flux de capitaux et la stabilité financière : résultat pour la République démocratique du Congo [Feedback effect between Volatility of capital flows and f," MPRA Paper 78051, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Mar 2017.
    2. Pinshi, Christian, 2016. "Une perspective macroprudentielle pour la stabilité financière [A macroprudential perspective on financial stability]," MPRA Paper 77905, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Feb 2017.
    3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Jimena Zúñiga, 2015. "Varieties of capital flows: What do we know," Business School Working Papers 2015-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2016. "Does reserve accumulation crowd out investment?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 89-111.
    5. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    6. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    7. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2015. "Financial Crises, Development, and Growth: A Long-term Perspective," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(suppl_1), pages 53-76.
    9. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    10. EL FAIZ, Zakaria & ZIANI, Manal, 2016. "Influence de la politique monétaire sur le taux long Quelques évidences empiriques, cas du Maroc [The impact of monetary on long rates : Some empirical evidence from Morocco]," MPRA Paper 72817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Beni Kouevi-Gath & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Laurent Weill, 2021. "Do banking crises improve democracy?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 413-446, March.
    12. Giulia Bonamini & Vincenzo D'Apice & Antonio Forte, 2015. "Inside European Financial Instability: Main Causes and Possible Solutions," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 44(1), pages 123-149, February.
    13. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Arana, Rumile & Ramirez, Francisco A. & Wright, Allan, 2017. "Credit Risks and Monetary Policy within Caribbean Economies," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8268, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    16. Mark Copelovitch & David A. Singer, 2017. "Tipping the (Im)balance: Capital inflows, financial market structure, and banking crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 179-208, November.
    17. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    18. Djimoudjiel Djekonbe, 2018. "Banking Capitalization and Financial Development in Chad: The Comparative Effects of The Banking Process," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 65-77, December.
    19. Furceri, Davide & Guichard, Stéphanie & Rusticelli, Elena, 2012. "The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-344.
    20. Lipscy, Phillip Y., 2018. "Democracy and Financial Crisis," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 937-968, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01577198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.