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Capital controls and spillover effects: evidence from Latin-American countries

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  • Lambert, F.
  • Ramos-Tallada, J.
  • Rebillard, C.

Abstract

The surge in capital inflows towards emerging countries after 2009 has revived the debate about capital controls. This paper analyzes some of the international implications of restrictions on capital inflows. Focusing on a sample of Latin-American countries, we use detailed balance of payments data and higher frequency data on portfolio bond and equity flows to investigate the potential spillover effects that capital controls imposed in one country may have on neighboring economies. Using various econometric approaches, we find that a rise in the Brazilian tax on portfolio bond inflows has been affecting other Latin-American economies through significant surges in portfolio funds invested either in fixed income or equity securities. The effect is usually short lasting and followed by rapid reductions in those inflows. Yet it can be large. According to our estimates, the increase in the Brazilian tax on portfolio bond inflows may account for the entire surge in bond inflows to Mexico between September and October 2010.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 357.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:357

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Keywords: capital flows; capital controls; spillovers; Latin America; VAR.;

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  1. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Bernando S. de M. Carvalho, 2006. "Ineffective controls on capital inflows under sophisticated financial markets: Brazil in the nineties," Textos para discussão 516, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  2. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October.
  3. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, July.
  4. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
  5. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
  6. Cordella, Tito, 2003. "Can short-term capital controls promote capital inflows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 737-745, October.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Policy Instruments to Lean Against the Wind in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 11/159, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Edwards, Sebastian & Rigobon, Roberto, 2009. "Capital controls on inflows, exchange rate volatility and external vulnerability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 256-267, July.
  9. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Toro, . "Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?," Borradores de Economia 625, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2006. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 11973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2007. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 645-674 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Garcia, Marcio G. P. & Barcinski, Alexandre, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil in the Nineties: Macroeconomic Aspects and the Effectiveness of Capital Controls," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 1), pages 319-357.
  12. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(3), pages 523-561, August.
  13. Rossini, Renzo & Quispe, Zenon & Rodriguez, Donita, 2011. "Capital Flows, Monetary Policy and FOREX Interventions in Peru," Working Papers 2011-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  14. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
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