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L'impact des chocs externes dans les économies du Mercosur: un modèle VAR Structurel

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  • Céline Gimet

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

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    Abstract

    Cette étude vise à déterminer les causes de la déstabilisation des pays du Mercosur ces dernières années, à l'origine du flottement des monnaies. A l'aide d'un VAR Structurel, nous analysons l'impact d'une politique monétaire restrictive des Etats-Unis, d'une baisse de la confiance des marchés financiers, et d'une hausse des prix mondiaux des produits agricoles sur les secteurs réel, financier et monétaire de ces pays. La vulnérabilité des économies à ces chocs révèle le défaut de soutenabilité des régimes de change en place durant cette période. En outre, bien que les réactions des pays à chaque type de choc soient proches, des divergences subsistent du fait de l'hétérogénéité des structures macroéconomiques et financières des pays.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00356105.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Publication status: Published, Economie Internationale, 2007, 110, pp. 107-136
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00356105

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    Keywords: chocs internationaux; Mercosur; modele VAR structurel; restrictions contemporaines et de long terme; taux de change; regime de change; chocs;

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    1. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    2. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    8. David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Bordo, Michael D. & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2006. "Globalization and changing patterns in the international transmission of shocks in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 655-674, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-00493384 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41 - 54, September.
    3. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "The viability of an economic and monetary union in Africa with a unified currency: evidence from the African economies' reactions to the international income, price and monetary shocks," Working Papers hal-00851594, HAL.

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