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Crédibilité et currency board : le cas lituanien

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  • Jérôme Blanc

    ()
    (LEFI - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Firme et des Institutions - Université Lumière - Lyon II : EA4012)

  • Jean-François Ponsot

    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

Abstract

Si le currency board établi en Lituanie en avril 1994 s'est accompagné de la stabilité monétaire, il n'a pas pour autant bénéficié de la crédibilité qu'il était censé apporter. Ce texte s'interroge sur ce défaut de crédibilité. On examine d'abord l'hypothèse courante selon laquelle l'écart entre le modèle pur de currency board, censé apporter par lui-même la crédibilité, et le modèle lituanien, est à l'origine de ce déficit. On interroge ensuite les circonstances et les effets de la crise bancaire systémique de 1995-96. On traite enfin des conséquences des chocs exogènes sur l'économie lituanienne. Le tout conduit à avancer une autre hypothèse : les contraintes du currency board - fût-il impur - ont provoqué le besoin de restauration de marges de manœuvre discrétionnaires, ce qui a été traduit comme une dénaturation. Le défaut de crédibilité est alors le produit du currency board lui-même.

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File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/14/40/02/PDF/JBJFPLituanieREF.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00144002.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published, Revue d'économie financière, 2004, 75, 113-127
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00144002

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Keywords: Caisse d'émission. Crédibilité. Politique monétaire. Crise bancaire.;

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References

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  1. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  2. Nenovsky Nikolay & Hristov Kalin & Mihaylov Mihail, 2001. "Comparing Currency Board Automatic Mechanism in Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-44, December.
  3. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean Baptiste Desquilbet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2004. "Credibility and adjustment: gold standards versus currency boards," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-692, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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