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Portfolio insurance: Gap risk under conditional multiples

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  • Jean-Luc Prigent

    (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

  • H. Ben Ameur
  • J.L. Prigent

Abstract

The research on financial portfolio optimization has been originally developed by Markowitz (1952). It has been further extended in many directions, among them the portfolio insurance theory introduced by Leland and Rubinstein (1976) for the “Option Based Portfolio Insurance” (OBPI) and Perold (1986) for the “Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance” method (CPPI). The recent financial crisis has dramatically emphasized the interest of such portfolio strategies. This paper examines the CPPI method when the multiple is allowed to vary over time. To control the risk of such portfolio management, a quantile approach is introduced together with expected shortfall criteria. In this framework, we provide explicit upper bounds on the multiple as function of past asset returns and volatilities. These values can be statistically estimated from financial data, using for example ARCH type models. We show how the multiple can be chosen in order to satisfy the guarantee condition, at a given level of probability and for various financial market conditions.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Luc Prigent & H. Ben Ameur & J.L. Prigent, 2014. "Portfolio insurance: Gap risk under conditional multiples," Post-Print hal-03679707, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03679707
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2013.11.027
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    Cited by:

    1. Branger, Nicole & Mahayni, Antje & Zieling, Daniel, 2015. "Robustness of stable volatility strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 134-151.
    2. Hatem Masri, 2017. "A multiple stochastic goal programming approach for the agent portfolio selection problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 251(1), pages 179-192, April.
    3. Xiu Xu & Andrija Mihoci & Wolfgang Karl Hardle, 2020. "lCARE -- localizing Conditional AutoRegressive Expectiles," Papers 2009.13215, arXiv.org.
    4. Ben Ameur, H. & Prigent, J.-L., 2018. "Risk management of time varying floors for dynamic portfolio insurance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 363-381.
    5. Hamidi, Benjamin & Maillet, Bertrand & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2014. "A dynamic autoregressive expectile for time-invariant portfolio protection strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-29.
    6. Zhang, Tao & Zhou, Hongfeng & Li, Larry & Gu, Feng, 2015. "Optimal rebalance rules for the constant proportion portfolio insurance strategy – Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 413-422.
    7. Naceur Naguez, 2018. "Dynamic portfolio insurance strategies: risk management under Johnson distributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 605-629, March.
    8. Marcos Escobar-Anel & Andreas Lichtenstern & Rudi Zagst, 2020. "Behavioral portfolio insurance strategies," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(4), pages 353-399, December.
    9. Peyman Alipour & Ali Foroush Bastani, 2023. "Value-at-Risk-Based Portfolio Insurance: Performance Evaluation and Benchmarking Against CPPI in a Markov-Modulated Regime-Switching Market," Papers 2305.12539, arXiv.org.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-509 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. David Happersberger & Harald Lohre & Ingmar Nolte, 2020. "Estimating portfolio risk for tail risk protection strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1107-1146, September.
    12. Zagst, Rudi & Kraus, Julia & Bertrand, Philippe, 2019. "Option-Based performance participation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 44-61.
    13. Naceur Naguez & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2014. "Dynamic Portfolio Insurance Strategies: Risk Management under Johnson Distributions," Working Papers 2014-329, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    14. Dupret, Jean-Loup & Hainaut, Donatien, 2021. "Portfolio insurance under rough volatility and Volterra processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2021026, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    15. Tawil, Dima, 2018. "Risk-adjusted performance of portfolio insurance and investors’ preferences," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-18.
    16. Xu, Xiu & Mihoci, Andrija & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2018. "lCARE - localizing conditional autoregressive expectiles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 198-220.
    17. Wentao Hu & Cuixia Chen & Yufeng Shi & Ze Chen, 2022. "A Tail Measure With Variable Risk Tolerance: Application in Dynamic Portfolio Insurance Strategy," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 831-874, June.

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