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The Impact of Low-Carbon Policy on Stock Returns

Author

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  • Rania Hentati-Kaffel

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alessandro Ravina

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of low-carbon policy on stock returns by means of an environmental extension of Fama and French's (2015) five factor model. This paper makes four major contributions. Firstly, for the first time a factor, GMC (green minus carbon), meant to provide the premium which results from not paying a carbon price is constructed. The GMC factor is obtained by means of a sample of 182 firms from 19 European countries operating in 35 sectors: from January 2008 to December 2018 the value-weight returns of 91 firms regulated by the 2003/87/CE directive are subtracted from the value-weight returns of 91 firms exempted by the 2003/87/CE directive upon which the EU-ETS is based. Secondly, we provide evidence that the addition of the GMC factor improves the performance of the 5 factor model in Europe in the 2008-2018 time span. Thirdly, results show that there is a high green premium rather than a carbon premium as it was asserted by parts of the literature, and that this green premium is highly statistically significant. Fourthly, after performing a carbon stress test, we show the effects of EU-ETS average price shocks on both carbon and green firms for each market cap tranche.

Suggested Citation

  • Rania Hentati-Kaffel & Alessandro Ravina, 2020. "The Impact of Low-Carbon Policy on Stock Returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03045804, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03045804
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3444168
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03045804
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

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    Keywords

    Low-carbon transition risks; EU-ETS; CO2 emissions; asset pricing model; green premium;
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