A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk
AbstractWe propose a new method for analysing multiperiod stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in the current practice of macro stress testing. Our method quantifies the plausibility of scenarios by considering the distance of the stress scenario from an average scenario. For a given level of plausibility our method searches systematically for the most adverse scenario for the given portfolio. This method therefore gives a formal criterion for judging the plausibility of scenarios and it makes sure that no plausible scenario will be missed. We show how this method can be applied to a range of models already in use among stress testing practitioners. While worst case search requires numerical optimisation we show that for practically relevant cases we can work with reasonably good linear approximations to the portfolio loss function that make the method computationally very efficient and easy to implement. Applying our approach to data from the Spanish loan register and using a portfolio credit risk model we show that, compared to standard stress test procedures, our method identifies more harmful scenarios that are equally plausible.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1018.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Stress Testing; Credit Risk; Worst Case Search; Maximum Loss;
Other versions of this item:
- Breuer, Thomas & Jandačka, Martin & Mencía, Javier & Summer, Martin, 2012. "A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 332-340.
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2010-07-03 (Banking)
- NEP-CFN-2010-07-03 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-CMP-2010-07-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2010-07-03 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2010-07-03 (Risk Management)
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