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Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”

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On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to a significant concern over the “Trade War” between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns but higher default risks in the short time window around the announcement date. We also find that firms’ indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output linkages affects their responses to the announcement. These findings suggest that the structure of US-China trade is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that engendered Trump’s “Trade War” against China.

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  • Yi Huang & Chen Lin & Sibo Liu & Heiwai Tang, 2018. "Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”," IHEID Working Papers 11-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp11-2018
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Hong & Ning, Jingxin & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2021. "An eye for an eye? The trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.
    3. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Pan, Liang & Lei, Lili, 2023. "International trade friction and firm cash holdings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    5. Chen, Yanhua & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "The U.S.-China trade conflict impacts on the Chinese and U.S. stock markets: A network-based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    6. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Huzaifa Shamsi, 2024. "Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Assessing Firm Risk, Environmental Commitments, and Information Channels in the wake of COVID-19," IIMA Working Papers WP 2024-01-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    8. Marlene Amstad & Leonardo Gambacorta & Chao He & Dora Xia, 2021. "Trade sentiment and the stock market: new evidence based on big data textual analysis of Chinese media," BIS Working Papers 917, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Zhang, Si Ying, 2021. "Using equity market reactions and network analysis to infer global supply chain interdependencies in the context of COVID-19," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Dai, Yunhao & Tong, Xinchu & Wang, Li, 2022. "Workplace safety accident, employee treatment, and firm value: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    Keywords

    Stock returns; event study; trade policy; offshoring; input-output linkages; global value chains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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