Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Pierce, Justin R.

    ()
    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Schott, Peter K.

    ()
    (Yale School of Management & NBER)

Abstract

This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the E.U., where there was no change in policy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2014/201404/201404pap.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2014-4.

as in new window
Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-04

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html

Related research

Keywords: Manufacturing; trade policy; uncertainty; offshoring; China; World Trade Organization; supply chains;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Sourafel Girma & Yundan Gong & Holger Gˆrg & Zhihong Yu, 2009. "Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm-level Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 863-891, December.
  2. Amit K. Khandelwal & Peter K. Schott & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," NBER Working Papers 17524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Dewatripont, Mathias & Du, Liqun & Harrison, Ann & Legros, Patrick, 2011. "Industrial Policy and Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 8619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Barry T. Hirsch & David A. Macpherson, 2003. "Union Membership and Coverage Database from the Current Population Survey: Note," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(2), pages 349-354, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Manufacturing (the US and China)
    by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2013-01-08 17:35:00
  2. Prospects of tariff increases and manufacturing employment
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2014-01-07 15:13:00
  3. La concurrence chinoise et le déclin de l’emploi américain
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-08-25 19:08:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2013. "Chinese Export Competition, Declining Exports and Adjustments at the Industry and Regional Level in Europe," MPRA Paper 48878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Kondo, Illenin O., 2013. "Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S," International Finance Discussion Papers 1095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edwards, 2013. "US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience," Policy Briefs PB13-27, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  4. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2014. "Labor-Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Douglas L. Campbell, 2013. "Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing," 2013 Papers pca584, Job Market Papers.
  6. Nicholas Bloom & Paul Romer & Stephen Terry & John Van Reenen, 2014. "Trapped Factors and China's Impact on Global Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp1261, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Ling Feng & Zhiyuan Li & Deborah L. Swenson, 2014. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Exports: Evidence from China's WTO Accession," CESifo Working Paper Series 4780, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Carrère, Céline & Fugazza, Marco & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2014. "Trade in Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Yi Lu & Zhigang Tao & Yan Zhang, 2013. "How Do Exporters Respond to Antidumping Investigations?," Working Papers 192013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  10. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mariya Mileva, 2014. "Smoothing the adjustment to trade liberalization," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 61, WWWforEurope.
  11. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 18938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S," NBER Working Papers 19376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mariya Mileva, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Wage Inequality: New Insights from a Dynamic Trade Model with Heterogeneous Firms and Comparative Advantage," Kiel Working Papers 1886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  14. Consoli,Davide & Vona,Francesco & Rentocchini,Francesco, 2014. "That was then, this is now: Skills and Routinization in the 2000s," INGENIO (CSIC-UPV) Working Paper Series 201306, INGENIO (CSIC-UPV).
  15. Bown, Chad & Denevers, Michele & Harrison, Ann, 2013. "Why Fracking Won't Bring Back the Factories (Yet)," MPRA Paper 47872, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.