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The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment

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  • Justin Pierce
  • Peter Schott

Abstract

This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the EU, where there was no change in policy.

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File URL: ftp://ftp2.census.gov/ces/wp/2013/CES-WP-13-59.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 13-59.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:13-59

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  1. Zhihong Yu & Yundan Gong & Sourafel Girma & Holger Görg, 2008. "Can production subsidies explain China's export performance? Evidence from firm level data," Kiel Working Papers 1442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Aghion, Philippe & Dewatripont, Mathias & Du, Liqun & Harrison, Ann & Legros, Patrick, 2011. "Industrial Policy and Competition," CEPR Discussion Papers 8619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Barry T. Hirsch & David A. Macpherson, 2003. "Union Membership and Coverage Database from the Current Population Survey: Note," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(2), pages 349-354, January.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Manufacturing (the US and China)
    by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2013-01-08 17:35:00
  2. Prospects of tariff increases and manufacturing employment
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2014-01-07 15:13:00
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Cited by:
  1. Campbell, Douglas L., 2013. "Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing," MPRA Paper 51723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Nicholas Bloom & Paul Romer & Stephen Terry & John Van Reenen, 2014. "Trapped Factors and China's Impact on Global Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp1261, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Céline CARRERE & Marco FUGAZZA & Marcelo OLARREAGA & Frédéric ROBERT-NICOUD, 2014. "Trade in Unemployment," Working Papers P101, FERDI.
  4. Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon H., 2013. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 7329, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 9615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Kondo, Illenin O., 2013. "Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S," International Finance Discussion Papers 1095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2014. "Labor-Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mariya Mileva, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Wage Inequality: New Insights from a Dynamic Trade Model with Heterogeneous Firms and Comparative Advantage," Kiel Working Papers 1886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mariya Mileva, 2014. "Smoothing the adjustment to trade liberalization," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 61, WWWforEurope.
  10. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edwards, 2013. "US Employment Deindustrialization: Insights from History and the International Experience," Policy Briefs PB13-27, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  11. Bown, Chad & Denevers, Michele & Harrison, Ann, 2013. "Why Fracking Won't Bring Back the Factories (Yet)," MPRA Paper 47872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Yi Lu & Zhigang Tao & Yan Zhang, 2013. "How Do Exporters Respond to Antidumping Investigations?," Working Papers 192013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  13. Ling Feng & Zhiyuan Li & Deborah L. Swenson, 2014. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Exports: Evidence from China's WTO Accession," CESifo Working Paper Series 4780, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2013. "Chinese Export Competition, Declining Exports and Adjustments at the Industry and Regional Level in Europe," MPRA Paper 48878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Consoli,Davide & Vona,Francesco & Rentocchini,Francesco, 2014. "That was then, this is now: Skills and Routinization in the 2000s," INGENIO (CSIC-UPV) Working Paper Series 201306, INGENIO (CSIC-UPV).

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