The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment
AbstractThis paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the EU, where there was no change in policy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4563.
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
manufacturing; trade policy; uncertainty; offshoring; supply chains; employment; China; World Trade Organizations; PNTR;
Other versions of this item:
- Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K., 2013. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment," NBER Working Papers 18655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Justin Pierce & Peter Schott, 2013. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment," Working Papers 13-59, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
- F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
- F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
- J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-INT-2014-03-08 (International Trade)
- NEP-LAB-2014-03-08 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LMA-2014-03-08 (Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, & Wages)
- NEP-TID-2014-03-08 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
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by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2014-01-07 15:13:00
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