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Understanding Digital Technology's Evolution and the Path of Measured Productivity Growth: Present and Future in the Mirror of the Past

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Author Info
David, P.A.

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Abstract

Three styles of explanation have been advanced by economists seeking to account for the so-called "productivity paradox". The coincidence of a persisting slowdown in the growth of measured total factor productivity (TFP) in the US, since the mid-1970's with the wave of information technology (It) innovations, is said by some to be an illusion due to the mismeasurement of real output growth; by others to expose the mistaken expectations about the benefits of computerization; and by still others to reflect the amount of time, and the volume of intangible investments in "learning", and the time required for ancillary innovations that allow the new digital technologies to be applied in ways that are reflected in measured productivity growth. This paper shows that rather than viewing these as competing hypotheses, the dynamics of the transition to a new technological and economic regime based upon a general purpose technology (GPT) should be understood to be likely to give rise to all three "effects."

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by United Nations World Employment Programme- in its series Papers with number 99-011.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fth:unwoem:99-011

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Postal: International Center for Economic Growth, 243 Kearny Street, San Francisco, California 94108.

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Related research
Keywords: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ; ECONOMIC GROWTH;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "The Origins of Technology-Skill Complementarity," NBER Working Papers 5657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Abramovitz, Moses & David, Paul A, 1973. "Reinterpreting Economic Growth: Parables and Realities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 428-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "Problems in the Measurement and Performance of Service-Sector Productivity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 5519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. W. Michael Cox & Roy J. Ruffin, 1998. "What should economists measure? The implications of mass production vs. mass customization," Working Papers 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paul A. David & Gavin Wright, 1999. "General Purpose Technologies and Surges in Productivity: Historical Reflections on the Future of the ICT Revolution," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _031, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin Hitt, 1997. "Paradox Lost? Firm-level Evidence of High Returns to Information Systems Spending," Working Paper Series 162, MIT Center for Coordination Science. [Downloadable!]
  7. Martin Neil Baily & Robert J. Gordon, 1988. "The Productivity Slowdown, Measurement Issues, and the Explosion of Computer Power," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-2), pages 347-432. [Downloadable!]
  8. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Diewert, W.E. & Fox, K.J., 1998. "Can Measurement Error Explain the Productivity Paradox?," UBC Departmental Archives 98-04, UBC Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  10. W. Michael Cox & Richard Alm, 1998. "The right stuff; America's move to mass customization," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 3-26. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Boyer, Robert, 2001. "L'économiste face aux innovations qui font époque : les relations entre histoire et théorie," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0112, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
  2. Boyer, Robert, 2001. "La "nouvelle économie" au futur antérieur : histoire, théories, géographie," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0113, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hiroshi Ohashi, 2003. "Econometric Analysis Of Price Index For Home Video Cassette Recorders In The U.S., 1978-1987," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 179-197, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nirvikar Singh, 2004. "Information Technology and India’s Economic Development," Development and Comp Systems 0412007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2008. "Technical Change and Economic Growth: Some Lessons from Secular Patterns and Some Conjectures on the Current Impact of ICT Technology," LEM Papers Series 2008/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paul A. David & Dominique Foray, 2001. "An Introduction to the Economy of the Knowledge Society," Economics Series Working Papers 084, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bugamelli, M. & Pagano, P. & Paterno, F. & Pozzolo, A.F. & Rossi, S. & Schivardi, F., 2003. "Ingredients for The New Economy: How Much Does Finance Matter?," EIFC - Technology and Finance Working Papers 31, United Nations University, Institute for New Technologies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Mauro Napoletano & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2009. "Country Size, Appropriate Policy, and Economic Performance: Some Evidence from OECD Countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  9. Sandro Sapio & Grid Thoma, 2006. "The Growth of Industrial Sectors: Theoretical Insights and Empirical Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing," LEM Papers Series 2006/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Consoli Davide & Quatraro Francesco & Patrucco Pier Paolo, 2006. "Un'analisi comparata delle performance technologiche nel nord-ovest sabaudo nel lungo periodo nel contesto delle regioni italiane: gli anni 1980-2001," Dipartimento di Economia "S. Cognetti de Martiis" LEI & BRICK - Laboratorio di economia dell'innovazione "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio Carlo 200605, University of Turin. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alan Hughes & Michael S Scott Morton, 2005. "ICT and productivity growth - the paradox resolved?," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp316, ESRC Centre for Business Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Simona Iammarino & Cecilia Jona-Lasini & Susanna Mantegazza, 2004. "Labour productivity, ICT and regions: The revival of Italian “dualism”?," SPRU Electronic Working Paper Series 127, University of Sussex, SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Paul A. David, 2005. "Productivity growth prospects and the new economy in historical perspective," Economic History 0502005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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