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The Growth of Industrial Sectors: Theoretical Insights and Empirical Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing

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Sandro Sapio
Grid Thoma

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Abstract

In this paper, we study the growth rates of 4-digit sectors in U.S. manufacturing. Two measures of size (value of shipments, value added) are considered, for each of the 38 years (1959-1996) of a sample of 458 4-digit sectors, drawn from the NBER Manufacturing Productivity database. Whole sample results are partly in line with firm growth facts: (i) sectoral growth rates are distributed according to heavy-tailed Subbotin distributions, with shape coefficient between 1.0 (Laplace) and 1.5; (ii) the volatility of growth rates is decreasing with respect to size, with a scaling exponent varying over time, but always between -0.20 and -0.10. Preliminary analyses on more homogeneous groups cast doubts on the evidence of scaling, but leave basically unaffected the distributional properties of sectoral growth. These results shed light on the role of inter-firm correlations, market concentration, and positive intersectoral feedbacks as drivers of meso-economic dynamics.

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Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2006/09.

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Date of creation: 03 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2006/09

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Keywords: Sectoral Growth; Subbotin Distribution; Scaling; U.S. Manufacturing;

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  6. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2003. "Common Properties and Sectoral Specificities in the Dynamics of U.S. Manufacturing Companies," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 217-232, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Giovanni Dosi, 2005. "Statistical Regularities in the Evolution of Industries. A Guide through some Evidence and Challenges for the Theory," LEM Papers Series 2005/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Dosi, Giovanni, 1988. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1120-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2005. "Explaining the Distribution of Firms Growth Rates," LEM Papers Series 2005/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Sandro Sapio, 2004. "Yeast vs. Mushrooms: A Note on Harberger's "A Vision of the Growth Process"," LEM Papers Series 2004/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Pavitt, Keith, 1984. "Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 343-373, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. S. V. Buldyrev & L. A. N. Amaral & S. Havlin & H. Leschhorn & P. Maass & M. A. Salinger & H. E. Stanley & M. H. R. Stanley, 1997. "Scaling behavior in economics: II. Modeling of company growth," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/9702085, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2004. "Income Levels and Income Growth. Some New Cross-Country Evidence and Some Interpretative Puzzles," LEM Papers Series 2004/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Giulio Bottazzi, 2001. "Firm Diversification and the Law of Proportionate Effect," LEM Papers Series 2001/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Sandro Sapio, 2006. "Modelling smooth and uneven cross-sectoral growth patterns: an identification problem," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 15(7), pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Carolina Castaldi & Sandro Sapio, 2008. "Growing like mushrooms? Sectoral evidence from four large European economies," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 509-527, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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