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A New Application of Taylor Rules: Model Evaluation

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  • Kevin D. Salyer
  • Kristin Van Gaasback

Abstract

Taylor rules posit a linear relationship between the output gap, inflation, and short-term nominal interest rates. Previous work has shown that the relationship between these key economic variables as captured by the Taylor rule is quite robust both across countries and monetary policy regimes. Consequently, the Taylor rule has become a useful characterization of monetary policy with much recent work focussed on the optimal formulation of the Taylor rule and the properties of equilibrium. Our interest in the Taylor rule is from a quite different perspective: we ask whether a calibrated monetary model can produce Taylor rule behavior similar to that seen in the data. That is, since the Taylor rule is a useful summary of the characteristics of a monetary economy, it seems reasonable to ask whether a monetary model, when calibrated to the data, produces a similar relationship. For our analysis, we employ a version of the limited participation model of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (1997) that permits both technology and money shocks. We find that this model, when the shock process is calibrated to US data, is able to replicate qualtitatively the correlation of interest rates with inflation implied by the Taylor rule but fails dramatically to match that between nominal interest rates and output.

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Paper provided by California Davis - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 00-13.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:00-13

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  1. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
  5. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
  7. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  8. Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David Reifschneider & Robert Tetlow & Frederico Finan, 1999. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," NBER Working Papers 6599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Staff Report 227, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Cooley, Thomas F. & Hansen, Gary D., 1998. "The role of monetary shocks in equilibrium business cycle theory: Three examples," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 605-617, May.
  13. L.J. Christiano & C.J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 33, Netherlands Central Bank.
  14. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  15. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  16. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
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