Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Real Exchange Rates and Growth Surges

Contents:

Author Info

  • Darryl McLeod

    (Fordham University, Department of Economics)

  • Elitza Mileva

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

Maintaining a weak real exchange rate is a widely recommended growth strategy, in part because of the success of Asian exporters, most recently China. Simulations of a simple two-sector open economy growth model based on Matsuyama (1992) suggest that a weaker real exchange rate can lead to a "growth surge", as workers move into traded goods industries with more "learning by doing" and exit non-traded goods sectors with slower productivity growth. Using the updated total factor productivity (TFP) estimates from Bosworth and Collins (2003) we test this model in a panel of 58 countries. We find the anticipated non-linear relationship between the real exchange rate and TFP growth: beyond a certain point real currency depreciation reduces TFP and GDP growth. Manufacturing exports appear to be one channel via which the real exchange rate affects TFP growth. Fears that a weaker real exchange rate might reduce investment and therefore productivity growth by making imported equipment more expensive are not supported by our estimates.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://stage.web.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/economics/dp2011_04_mcleod_mileva.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fordham University, Department of Economics in its series Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series with number dp2011-04.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2011-04

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.fordham.edu/economics/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; total factor productivity growth; exchange rate policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5629, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," Working Paper Series rwp04-030, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
  5. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2007. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," NBER Working Papers 12943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2002. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2003 05, Stata Users Group.
  8. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Y. Siregar, 2007. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Working Papers id:1198, eSocialSciences.
  9. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
  10. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?," NBER Working Papers 14558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mbaye, Samba, 2012. "Currency Undervaluation and Growth: Is there a Productivity Channel?," MPRA Paper 44261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Wacker, Konstantin M. & Großkurth, Philipp & Lakemann, Tabea, 2014. "Terms of Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Development: A Case of Intra-Asian “Kicking Away the Ladder”?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 122, Asian Development Bank.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2011-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fordham Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.