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Non-linearity in the Inflation-Growth Relationship in Developing Economies: Evidence from a Semiparametric Panel Model

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Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is notably lower than the comparable estimate obtained from a threshold model. Our results also suggest that models with restrictive functional form assumptions tend to underestimate marginal effects of inflation on economic growth. We also document significant variation in the effect of inflation on growth across countries and over time.

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  • Deniz Baglan & Emre Yoldas, 2014. "Non-linearity in the Inflation-Growth Relationship in Developing Economies: Evidence from a Semiparametric Panel Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-51
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    1. Nell, Kevin, 2023. "Inflation and growth in developing economies: A tribute to Professor Thirlwall," MPRA Paper 118757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2023.
    2. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    3. Thanh, Su Dinh, 2015. "Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 41-48.
    4. Barrera, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993 - 2012," Working Papers 2014-024, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    5. Christoph S. Weber, 2018. "Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
    6. He, Qichun & Zhang, Zhixiang, 2019. "Inflation and Growth: An Inverted-U Relationship," MPRA Paper 97092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shagas, Natalia (Шагас, Наталья) & Bojechkova, A.V. (Божечкова, А.В.) & Perevyshin, Y.N. (Перевышин, Ю.Н.) & Perevyshina, E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.), 2016. "Modeling of State Influence on the Processes of Economic Growth [Моделирование Воздействия Государства На Процессы Экономического Роста]," Working Papers 2132, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    8. Yingtao Wu & Maogang Tang & Zhonghao Zhang & Baijun Wu, 2019. "Whether Urban Development and Ecological Protection Can Achieve a Win-Win Situation—The Nonlinear Relationship between Urbanization and Ecosystem Service Value in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Tomáš Urbanovský, 2017. "Granger Causalities Between Interest Rate, Price Level, Money Supply and Real Gdp in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 745-757.
    10. Thouraya BOUJELBENE, 2021. "Nonlinearity Relationship of Inflation and Economic Growth: Role of Institutions Quality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 166-179, December.
    11. Celil AYDIN, 2017. "The Inflation-Growth Nexus: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis For D-8 Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-151, December.
    12. Polemis, Michael L. & Stengos, Thanasis, 2015. "Does market structure affect labour productivity and wages? Evidence from a smooth coefficient semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 182-186.
    13. M. Jonathan C. Eklund, 2022. "Do multinational firms respond to personal dividend income tax rates?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1743-1771, April.
    14. Polterovich, V. & Popov, V., 2016. "Exchange Rate, Inflation and Industrial Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 192-198.
    15. Tang, Maogang & Li, Xiuzhen & Zhang, Yun & Wu, Yingtao & Wu, Baijun, 2020. "From command-and-control to market-based environmental policies: Optimal transition timing and China’s heterogeneous environmental effectiveness," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-10.
    16. He, Qichun, 2023. "The inverted-U effect of inflation on growth: Cross-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Alexander William Salter & Thomas L. Hogan, 2019. "Expectations and NGDP Targeting: Supply-Side Problems with Demand-Side Policy," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 34(Fall 2019), pages 89-106.
    18. Thomas L. Hogan & William J. Luther, 2020. "Suboptimal Equilibria from Nominal GDP Targeting," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 35(Summer 20), pages 61-76.
    19. Baharudin, Azfar Hilmi, 2018. "A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Analysis of Price and Industrial Shocks on the Malaysian Economy," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(3), pages 191-204.
    20. Yanfang LYU & Linhui ZHAO & Dong WANG, 2023. "An Analysis of the Impact of US-China Trade Frictions on Chinese Manufacturing Industries from the Perspective of Trade Gains," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 43-56, December.
    21. Thouraya Boujelbène Dammak & Kamel Helali, 2017. "Threshold Effects on the Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 310-325, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; economic growth; semiparametric panel data model; series estimation; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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