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Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro-founded model

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  • Gary S. Anderson
  • Jinill Kim
  • Tack Yun

Abstract

Since Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), most studies of the problem of the inflation bias associated with discretionary monetary policy have assumed a quadratic loss function. We depart from the conventional linear-quadratic approach to the problem in favor of a projection method approach. We investigate the size of the inflation bias that arises in a microfounded nonlinear environment with Calvo price setting. The inflation bias is found to lie between 1% and 6% for a reasonable range of parameter values, when the bias is defined as the steady-state deviation of the discretionary inflation rate from the optimal inflation rate under commitment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2010-18.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-18

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Econometric models;

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  1. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2004. "Monetary discretion, pricing complementarity, and dynamic multiple equilibria," Working Paper 04-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  4. Tack Yun, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Relative Price Distortions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 89-109, March.
  5. Schaumburg, Ernst & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2007. "An investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 302-324, March.
  6. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
  7. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June.
  8. Klaus Adam & Roberto M. Billi, 2005. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Research Working Paper RWP 05-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2010. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 16054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Paul Klein & Per Krusell & José-V�ctor R�os-Rull, 2008. "Time-Consistent Public Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 789-808.
  11. Viktor Winschel & Markus Krätzig, 2008. "JBendge: An Object-Oriented System for Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-034, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  12. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Gary S. Anderson & Jinill Kim & Tack Yun, 2010. "Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro-founded model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Willem Van Zandweghe & Alexander Wolman, 2011. "Discretionary monetary policy in the Calvo model," Working Paper 11-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  15. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
  16. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Optimal Taxation in an RBC Model: A Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Working Papers 11029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2007. "Loose commitment," International Finance Discussion Papers 916, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Gapen Michael T. & Cosimano Thomas F., 2005. "Solving Ramsey Problems with Nonlinear Projection Methods," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-38, June.
  19. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Reexamination of the Stylized Facts," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 511, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 Aug 2003.
  20. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Dotsey, Michael & Hornstein, Andreas, 2003. "Should a monetary policymaker look at money?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 547-579, April.
  22. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Gary S. Anderson & Jinill Kim & Tack Yun, 2010. "Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro-founded model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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