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STAR-GARCH Models for Stock Market Interactions in the Pacific Basin Region, Japan and US

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Author Info

  • Giorgio Busetti

    (Quantitative Methods, Monte Paschi Alternative Investment, Milano, Italy)

  • Matteo Manera

    (Department of Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy)

Abstract

We investigate the financial interactions between countries in the Pacific Basin region (Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Taiwan), Japan and US. The originality of the paper is the use of STAR-GARCH models, instead of standard correlation-cointegration techniques. For each country in the Pacific Basin region, we find statistically adequate STAR-GARCH models for the series of stock market daily returns, using Nikkei225 and S&P500 as alternative threshold variables. We provide evidence for the leading role of Japan in the period 1988-1990 (pre-Japanese crisis years), whereas our results suggest that the Pacific Basin region countries are more closely linked with the US during the period 1995-1999 (post- Japanese crisis years).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2003.43.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2003.43

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Keywords: STAR-GARCH models; stock market integration; Pacific-Basin capital markets; outliers;

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  1. Oscar Jorda & Alvaro Escribano, 2003. "Improved Testing And Specification Of Smooth Transition Regression Models," Working Papers 9726, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Franses, Philip Hans & Ghijsels, Hendrik, 1999. "Additive outliers, GARCH and forecasting volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, February.
  3. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  4. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  5. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  6. Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Estimating Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models with GARCH Errors in the Presence of Extreme Observations and Outliers," ISER Discussion Paper 0539, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  7. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model," ISER Discussion Paper 0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  8. Terasvirta, Timo & Tjostheim, Dag & W.J. Granger, Clive, 1986. "Aspects of modelling nonlinear time series," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 48, pages 2917-2957 Elsevier.
  9. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
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