Spurious And Hidden Volatility
AbstractThis paper analyses the effects caused by outliers on the identification and estimation of GARCH models. We show that outliers can lead to detect spurious conditional heteroscedasticity and can also hide genuine ARCH effects. First, we derive the asymptotic biases caused by outliers on the sample autocorrelations of squared observations and their effects on some homoscedasticity tests. Then, we obtain the asymptotic biases of the OLS estimates of ARCH(p) models and analyze their finite sample behavior by means of extensive Monte Carlo experiments. The finite sample results are extended to GLS and ML estimates of ARCH(p) and GARCH(1,1) models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws042007.
Date of creation: Jul 2004
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- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-08-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-08-16 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-08-16 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2004-08-16 (Finance)
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