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Effects of Level Outliers on the Identification and Estimation of GARCH Models

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  • E. Ruiz
  • M.A. Carnero
  • D. Pereira

Abstract

In this paper, we study the effects caused by the presence of outliers on the identification and estimation of GARCH models. First, we derive the asymptotic biases of the sample autocorrelations of squared observations and their effects on some popular homoscedasticity tests when uncorrelated GARCH series are contaminated by level outliers. Then, we obtain the asymptotic biases of the OLS estimates of the parameters of ARCH(p) models and analyze their finite sample behavior by means of extensive Monte Carlo experiments. The finite sample results are also extended to ML estimates of ARCH(p) and GARCH(1,1) models. The results are illustrated analyzing real series of financial ret

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 21.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:21

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Keywords: Autocorrelations; Heteroscedasticity testing; Maximum Likelihood; Ordinary Least Squares;

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  1. Jurgen A. Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2005. "Outlier Detection in GARCH Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-092/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1991. "Large shocks, small shocks, and economic fluctuations: outliers in macroeconomic times series," Research Paper 9101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Lee, John H. H., 1991. "A Lagrange multiplier test for GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 265-271, November.
  4. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Serena Ng, 1998. "Testing for ARCH in the Presence of a Possibly Misspecified Conditional Mean," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 370, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
  7. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
  8. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
  9. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for ARCH in the Presence of Additive Outliers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 539-62, Sept.-Oct.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
  11. Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
  12. Franses, Philip Hans & Ghijsels, Hendrik, 1999. "Additive outliers, GARCH and forecasting volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, February.
  13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Ruiz, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2008. "Modelling long-memory volatilities with leverage effect: A-LMSV versus FIEGARCH," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2846-2862, February.

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