IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eus/wpaper/ec2005_02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy Transmission and Bank of Russia Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Yulia Vymyatnina

Abstract

The present study analysed monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Russia in the period of July 1995-September 2004. Bank of Russia officially implements inflation targeting and in its "General foundations of monetary policy" declares monetary base and monetary aggregate M2 as its operational and intermediate targets and policy instruments, insisting that using interest rate as a policy tool would be inefficient due to underdevelopment of financial system. Such position assumes controllability of monetary base, stability of money multiplier, and existence and stability of money demand function. In order to check the implicit assumptions of the monetary policy conduct of the Bank of Russia the SVECM model was constructed, involving monetary aggregate M2, price level, real total trade as a proxy for output, interbank interest rate and average monthly exchange rate, with one cointegrating relation estimated. The estimated cointegrating relation was recognised to be a long-run money demand function. The hypothesis of price homogeneity was not rejected, and the resulting cointegrating relation describes money demand function for the real M2 money balances. The analysis demonstrated that using monetary aggregate as a tool of monetary policy leads to greater variability in output and prices, though the time period of reaction is somewhat shorter as compared to the situation with interest rate as a policy instrument. The role of interest rate and exchange rate channels in monetary policy transmission is evident in both cases of monetary policy instrument choice. The major policy recommendation from the results received is for the Bank of Russia to introduce interest rate management practice simultaneously with further development of financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Yulia Vymyatnina, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Bank of Russia Monetary Policy," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2005/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:eus:wpaper:ec2005_02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eusp.org/sites/default/files/archive/ec_dep/wp/ec-02_05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Stiglitz,Joseph & Greenwald,Bruce, 2003. "Towards a New Paradigm in Monetary Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521810340, January.
    4. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "A preliminary evaluation of monetary policy rules for Russia," Kiel Working Papers 1201, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Mahadeva,Lavan & Sinclair,Peter (ed.), 2002. "Monetary Transmission in Diverse Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521813464.
    6. Juselius, Katarina & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in Spain: The effect of monetization, financial deregulation, and the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 509-531, April.
    7. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993. "The role of credit market imperfections in the monetary transmission mechanism: arguments and evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Pierre Perron, 1994. "Trend, Unit Root and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Time Series," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 4, pages 113-146, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Fridman Alla & Verbetsky Aleksey, 2001. "Currency Substitution in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 01-05e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    10. M. Camarero & J. Ordonez & C. R. Tamarit, 2002. "Monetary transmission in Spain: a structural cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(17), pages 2201-2212.
    11. Kierzenkowski, Rafal, 2005. "The multi-regime bank lending channel and the effectiveness of the Polish monetary policy transmission during transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Korhonen, Iikka & Wachtel, Paul, 2006. "A note on exchange rate pass-through in CIS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 215-226, June.
    13. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Domac, Ilker, 1999. "The distributional consequences of monetary policy : evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2170, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Divisia monetary aggregates for Russia: Money demand, GDP nowcasting and the price puzzle," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    2. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Tripathi, Shruti & Chowdhury, Sahana Roy, 2019. "Financial structure, institutional quality and monetary policy transmission: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 19/274, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Bank of Russia Monetary Policy," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-02/05, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2005.
    2. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    3. Riccardo Fiorentini & Roberto Tamborini, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Credit and Aggregate Supply: The Evidence from Italy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(3), pages 451-491, November.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    5. G.J. De Bondt, 1999. "Credit channels in Europe: a cross-country investigation," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(210), pages 295-326.
    6. Jia Liu, 2009. "Business Failures And Macroeconomic Factors In The Uk," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 47-72, January.
    7. Law, Siong Hook & Tan, Hui & baharumshah, ahmad, 1999. "Financial Liberalization in ASEAN and the Fisher Hypothesis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 33, pages 65-86.
    8. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(2), pages 193-223, May.
    9. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    11. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
    12. I. Arnold & C.J.M. Kool & K. Raabe, 2005. "New evidence on the firm size effects in US monetary policy transmission," Working Papers 05-11, Utrecht School of Economics.
    13. Chow, Sheung Chi & Vieito, João Paulo & Wong, Wing Keung, 2019. "Do both demand-following and supply-leading theories hold true in developing countries?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 536-554.
    14. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    15. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    16. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Short- and long-run electricity demand elasticities at the subsectoral level: A cointegration analysis for German manufacturing industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-187.
    17. Emmanouil Mavrakis & Christos Alexakis, 2018. "Statistical Arbitrage Strategies under Different Market Conditions: The Case of the Greek Banking Sector," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2), pages 159-185, August.
    18. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    19. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W. & Yamashiro, Guy M., 2007. "Bank loan portfolios and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 904-924, April.
    20. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition; demand for money;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eus:wpaper:ec2005_02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mikhail Pakhnin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feeusru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.