A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium
AbstractThe term premium is estimated from an empirically coherent open economy VAR model of the UK economy where the model specifically accounts for the mixed nature of the data and cointegration between some variables. Using this framework the estimated negative term premia for 1980-2007 is decomposed into its contributing shocks, where the role of inflation and monetary policy shocks are shown to be dominant in the evolution of the term premium. Projecting into the 2008 crisis period reveals the extent of the shocks to the UK economy, and also shows the similarities in term premia behaviour with those experienced during the 1998 Russian crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2011-26.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Dungey, Mardi & Tugrul Vehbi, M, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," Working Papers 11610, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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