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A New Class Of Tests Of Contagion With Applications To Real Estate Markets

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Author Info

  • Renee Fry

    ()

  • Vance L. Martin

    ()

  • Chrismin Tang

Abstract

A new class of tests of contagion is proposed which identifies transmission channels of financial market crises through changes in higher order moments of the distribution of returns such as coskewness. Applying the framework to test for contagion in real estate and equity markets following the Hong Kong crisis in 1997-1998 and the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 shows that the coskewness based tests of contagion detect additional channels that are not identified by the correlation based tests. Implications of contagion in pricing exchange options where there is a change in higher order comoments of returns on the underlying assets, are also investigated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2008-01.

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Length: 66 PAGES
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2008-01

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  1. John Knight & Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "Diversification When It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-16, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  2. Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-44, May.
  4. Jarl G. Kallberg & Crocker H. Liu & Paolo Pasquariello, 2002. "Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 263-291.
  5. Chiuling Lu & Raymond So, 2005. "Return Relationships between Listed Banks and Real Estate Firms: Evidence from Seven Asian Economies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 189-206, September.
  6. Lee, Ahyee & Moy, Ronald L. & Lee, Cheng F., 1996. "A multivariate test of the covariance-co-skewness restriction for the three moment CAPM," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 515-523, December.
  7. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2003. "Market Integration and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 9510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Quigley, John M., 2001. "Real Estate and the Asian Crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 129-161, June.
  9. Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2000. "Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-94, March.
  10. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
  11. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  12. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
  13. Baur, Dirk & Schulze, Niels, 2005. "Coexceedances in financial markets--a quantile regression analysis of contagion," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-43, April.
  14. Shaun Bond & Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry, 2006. "A Web Of Shocks: Crises Across Asian Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 253-274, May.
  15. Khalid, Ahmed M. & Kawai, Masahiro, 2003. "Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia?: Evidence using a multivariate VAR model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 131-156, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Benjamin M. Tabak & Solange M. Guerra & Rodrigo C. Miranda & Sergio Rubens S. de Souza, 2012. "Stress Testing Liquidity Risk: The Case of the Brazilian Banking System," Working Papers Series 302, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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