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Estimating Central Bank preferences in a small open economy: Sweden 1995-2009

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  • Gaetano D’Adamo

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna)

Abstract

Interest Rate rules are often estimated as simple reaction functions linking the policy interest rate to variables such as (forecasted) inflation and the output gap; however, the coefficients estimated with this approach are convolutions of structural and preference parameters. I propose an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy. When we consider open economies in a regime of Inflation Targeting, the issue of the role of the exchange rate in the Monetary Policy rule becomes relevant. The empirical analysis is conducted on Sweden, to verify whether the recent stabilization of the Krona/Euro exchange rate was due to “Fear of Floating”; the results show that the exchange rate might not have played a role in monetary policy, suggesting that the stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia in its series Working Papers with number 1111.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1111

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Keywords: Interest Rate Rules; Inflation Targeting; Central Bank Preferences; Fear of Floating.;

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  1. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2008. "Should the Euro Area Be Run as a Closed Economy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 138-45, May.
  2. J James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Discussion Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  3. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dick van Dijk & Haris Munandar & Christian Hafner, 2011. "The euro introduction and noneuro currencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 95-116.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005. "Do we really know how inflation targeters set interest rates?," Research Working Paper RWP 05-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  9. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Is the Short-run Phillips Curve Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence for Australia, Sweden and the United States," Working Paper Series 124, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  10. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  12. Sean Collins & Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Targets: Are Australia, Canada, and New Zealand Different from the U.S.?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 347-362, October.
  13. M. Camarero & J. Ordonez & C. R. Tamarit, 2002. "Monetary transmission in Spain: a structural cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(17), pages 2201-2212.
  14. Ball, Christopher P. & Reyes, Javier, 2008. "Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise? A broader perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 308-326, March.
  15. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
  16. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
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