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Monetary policy inertia: More a fiction than a fact?

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  • Consolo, Agostino
  • Favero, Carlo A.

Abstract

Empirical estimates of monetary policy reaction functions feature a very high estimated degree of monetary policy inertia. This evidence is very hard of reconcile with the alternative evidence of low predictability of monetary policy rates. In this paper we examine the potential relevance of the problem of weak instruments to correctly identify the degree of monetary policy inertia in forward-looking monetary policy reaction function of the type originally proposed by Taylor [1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Canergie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214]. After appropriately diagnosing and taking care of the weak instruments problem, we find an estimated degree of policy inertia which is significantly lower than the common value in the empirical literature on monetary policy rules.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 56 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (September)
Pages: 900-906

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:6:p:900-906

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Keywords: Monetary policy rules Policy gradualism Generalized method of moments Weak identification;

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References

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  1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  3. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  6. Donald, Stephen G. & Newey, Whitney K., 2000. "A jackknife interpretation of the continuous updating estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 239-243, June.
  7. Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, EconWPA.
  11. James H. Stock & Jonathan Wright, 2000. "GMM with Weak Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1055-1096, September.
  12. S Derlind, Paul & S Derstr M, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2005. "Dynamic Taylor Rules And The Predictability Of Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 412-428, June.
  13. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  14. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1993. "Testing Identifiability and Specification in Instrumental Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 222-240, April.
  15. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2007. "Taylor Rules And Interest Rate Smoothing In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 1-16, 01.
  16. Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution When Instruments Are Weak," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 797-810, August.
  17. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  18. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kobayashi Teruyoshi, 2010. "Policy Irreversibility and Interest Rate Smoothing," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, October.
  2. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2010. "Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis," IMK Working Paper 16-2010, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  3. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, 07.
  4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why are target interest rate changes so persistent?," Working Papers 106, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  5. Ferland, René & Gauthier, Geneviève & Lalancette, Simon, 2010. "A regime-switching term structure model with observable state variables," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 103-109, June.
  6. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
  7. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Testing for weak identification in possibly nonlinear models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 246-261, April.
  8. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2013. "Performance pay and changes in U.S. labor market dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2796-2813.
  9. Graham M. Voss & Glenn D. Otto, 2011. "Flexible Inflation Forecast Targeting: Evidence from Canada," Department Discussion Papers 1101, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.

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