Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Exchange Rate Regimes for the New Member States of the European Union

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ramon Maria-Dolores
  • Jose Garcia-Solanes

Abstract

One important issue for the new Member States (NMS) of the EU is the choice of the exchange rate regime that will allow them to participate successfully in the EMU process. Two exchange rate arrangements, compatible with the EU Treaty and ERM2 regulations, deserve special attention: flexible exchange rate regime and currency board with respect to the euro. The first regime (within stipulated bands), coupled with an inflation targeting scheme, agrees with the spirit of the European Commission and absorbs more easily supply shocks and Balassa Samuelson effects (which are present in real convergence and catching up episodes). It also prompts the process of nominal convergence. The second regime is suited to countries that need to foster the credibility of their monetary policy, but makes real adjustments to country-specific shocks and Balassa-Samuelson effects more difficult and/or costly. In this paper we investigate the dynamics of output and inflation under each exchange rate regime in NMS during the post EU accession and Maastricht phases. For that purpose, our model extends Gerlach and Smets (2000) and Detken and Gaspar (2003), icluding market distortions and three possible exchange rate regimes. In the empirical part of the paper we estimate SVAR models, following Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1993) methodology, in order to extract variances and covariances between shocks to each NMS and to the euro zone and compute individual social losses under each exchange rate arrangement. We use monthly data on industrial production and CPI for eight NMS countries. Our main result is that the optimal choice varies depending on the institutional and structural features of each economy, and on the likely source and nature of economic shocks to which it is exposed with respect to the whole euro area. Interestingly, the results for each country seem to conform to the general prescriptions that one would derive from the theory of optimal currency areas

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://repec.org/esAUSM04/up.23868.1077987445.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 306.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:306

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: EU enlargment; exchange rate systems; SVAR; European monetary integration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  3. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Vítor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 0241, European Central Bank.
  4. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
  5. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 77, Royal Economic Society.
  6. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment," Working Paper Series 0216, European Central Bank.
  10. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  12. Tamim Bayoumi, 1992. "The Effect of the ERM on Participating Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 330-356, June.
  13. Jan Babetski & Laurence Boone & Mathilde Maurel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: the Case of the Accession Countries," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp206, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  14. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
  15. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  16. Michael Frenkel & Christiane Nickel, 2002. "How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)+L2572?," IMF Working Papers 02/222, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.